Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2006

Mesoscale Discussion 2021

September 23, 20066 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 23, 2006, 4:10 AM CDT for 6 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 23, 2006, 4:10 AM CDT (09:10 UTC)
Expired
Sep 23, 2006, 6:15 AM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 158 counties

Baxter County, AR, Clay County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Greene County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Marion County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Alexander County, IL, Massac County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Ballard County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bath County, KY, Bell County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Carter County, KY, Casey County, KY, Christian County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clay County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Graves County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Hart County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Larue County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Logan County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Madison County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Marion County, KY, Marshall County, KY, Martin County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McCreary County, KY, McLean County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Woodford County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Howell County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Scott County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Benton County, TN, Campbell County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Clay County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Davidson County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Macon County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Morgan County, TN, Obion County, TN, Overton County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Scott County, TN, Smith County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Weakley County, TN, Wilson County, TN, Wayne County, WV

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 157 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2006-09-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1397 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2006-09-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 321 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1397 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-30 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
838 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
321 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
437 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
3.9
Supercell composite
14.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 230911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230910 
WVZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-231115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0410 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...SE MO...KY...NRN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 795...

VALID 230910Z - 231115Z

CONTINUE WW.  RISK FOR TORNADOES COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS PORTION OF WW BY AROUND 12Z.

BULK OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY IS BEGINNING
TO WEAKEN...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK
AS SUPPORTING IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.  STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL
ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ADVANCING ALONG THE
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NEXT FEW
HOURS. 

HOWEVER...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS PORTIONS OF WATCH...WHERE STALLING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN/SHIFT NORTHWARD. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS PRIMARY DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE ALONG UPSTREAM
FRONT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  RETURN OF 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF
EVOLVING FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION BY/SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.  THIS IS WHERE RISK
OF TORNADOES IN ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...WITHIN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

..KERR.. 09/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

36949297 37439110 37438947 37338813 37818631 38428409
38298232 37258256 36118452 36138707 35718940 35539256

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 22, 7:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Crawford, Washington88 min
Sep 22, 8:58 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Logan, Madison and 5 more7 hr
Sep 22, 10:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clay, Cleburne and 27 more2 hr
Sep 23, 12:59 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCBaxter, Boone, Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead and 16 more8 hr
Sep 23, 2:12 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Johnson and 6 more63 min
Sep 23, 3:33 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Cleburne, Conway and 22 more7 hr
Sep 23, 7:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Clay, Cleburne and 38 more85 min
Sep 23, 8:49 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Crittenden and 30 more5 hr
Sep 23, 10:51 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Clark, Cleveland, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 28 more114 min
Sep 23, 12:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Bradley, Calhoun, Columbia, Hempstead, Lafayette and 5 more2 hr
Sep 23, 1:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Cleveland, Crittenden, Desha, Jefferson, Lee and 5 more83 min
Sep 23, 2:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 13 more6 hr
Sep 23, 4:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland, Columbia and 5 more116 min
Sep 22, 7:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Bond, Calhoun, Christian, Clinton, Edwards and 36 more115 min
Sep 23, 3:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCook, DuPage, Kane, Lake55 min
Sep 23, 6:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKankakee2 hr
Sep 22, 8:22 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Boyle, Breckinridge and 38 more5 hr
Sep 22, 10:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Boyle, Breckinridge and 44 more118 min
Sep 23, 11:30 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Anderson, Bath, Boone, Bourbon, Boyd and 68 more3 hr
Sep 23, 12:13 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bourbon, Boyle and 42 more8 hr
Sep 23, 3:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Allen, Barren, Bath, Bell, Boyle and 35 more92 min
Sep 23, 11:53 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bedford, Bledsoe, Bradley, Cannon, Clay and 38 more67 min
Sep 23, 2:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenton, Chester, Decatur, Giles, Hardeman, Hardin and 10 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2006Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2006Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2006Every mesoscale discussion in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.