Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2006

Mesoscale Discussion 2

January 1, 200610 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 1, 2006, 11:03 AM MST for 10 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 1, 2006, 11:03 AM MST (18:03 UTC)
Expired: Jan 1, 2006, 3:30 PM MST
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Dewey County, SD, Haakon County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Jackson County, SD, Jones County, SD, Lyman County, SD, Meade County, SD, Stanley County, SD, Sully County, SD, Ziebach County, SD

The radar

The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 158 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KUNR), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 164 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1519 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 62 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 85 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 011803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011803 
SDZ000-012230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 011803Z - 012230Z

FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON /WITH POTENTIAL
FOR ICE ACCUMULATION/ ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 INCLUDING THE
PIERRE/PHILLIP AREAS AND CHEYENNE RIVER VICINITY. HOURLY LIQUID
WATER EQUIVALENTS OF 0.05 IN/HR ARE POSSIBLE.

SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS KS AS COMPACT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE...PRECIPITATION RATES
SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...OWING TO DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE/ELEVATED THETA-E WRAPPING
N/NW INTO SD/NEB AND OVERALL PERSISTENT NATURE OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT.

SIMILAR TO VERTICAL WET BULB PROFILES FROM OBSERVED 12Z RAPID
CITY/ABERDEEN SD RAOBS...15Z RUC SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
FREEZING RAIN AS PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THIS IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO ELEVATED MELTING
LAYER CENTERED AROUND 800 MB ABOVE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY ALONG/NORTH OF I-90 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PER OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.

..GUYER.. 01/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

45690147 45430060 44839965 44199945 43759981 43610033
43560121 43760267 45350287

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2006 Every mesoscale discussion in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.