Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2006
Mesoscale Discussion 1021
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 29, 2006, 11:22 AM CDT for 24 counties in Minnesota. It was in force for 113 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 29, 2006, 11:22 AM CDT (16:22 UTC)
- Expired
- May 29, 2006, 1:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 113 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 24 counties
Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Benton County, MN, Cass County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Crow Wing County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Itasca County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Koochiching County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pope County, MN, Renville County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Todd County, MN, Wadena County, MN
The radar
The Duluth radar (KDLH), 213 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 105 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2196 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -186 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1152 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 3 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 19 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 ACUS11 KWNS 291622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291622 MNZ000-291815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291622Z - 291815Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. A WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS EARLIER. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...MODELS SUGGEST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN MOIST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. LOWER/MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL IN MOST AREAS...BUT BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH INCREASING INSOLATION. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF SURFACE FRONT...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT IN CAPPING LAYER TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY DEVELOPMENT PROBABLY WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 18-19Z...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MAINLY NEAR/NORTH OF ST. CLOUD INTO THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA...THROUGH 21Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY NOT BE STRONG...BUT MODERATE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RISK FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. ..KERR.. 05/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 48239595 48869588 49629545 50709549 50819398 50289254 49919180 48989218 48479258 47419320 46289356 44319433 44689510 45459571 46529593 47589595
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 10:52 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clay, Wilkin | 6 hr |
| May 29, 1:57 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Big Stone, Clay, Traverse, Wilkin | 2 hr |
| May 29, 3:28 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Becker, Big Stone, Clay, Grant, Otter Tail, Traverse and 1 more | 92 min |
| May 29, 1:00 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Aitkin, Benton, Carlton, Cass, Crow Wing, Itasca and 9 more | 7 hr |
| May 29, 3:02 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aitkin, Anoka, Benton, Blue Earth, Carlton, Carver and 23 more | 118 min |
| May 29, 3:14 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Anoka, Blue Earth, Carver, Chisago, Dakota, Dodge and 23 more | 6 hr |
| May 29, 6:03 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aitkin, Anoka, Benton, Blue Earth, Carlton, Carver and 32 more | 87 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2006Every mesoscale discussion in 2006
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.