Snow Advisory 36, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED HEADLINES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
845 PM MDT SUN OCT 15 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH ON MONDAY
AND THEN SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RACING EAST
ALONG THE 100 KNOT CROSSING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON WITH PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. AIR MASS IS MOISTENING ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS
STORM. LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND NOSE OF THE JET STREAK IN
OREGON WILL TRACK EAST AND REACH SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH
MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE GREAT SALT LAKE AND
INTO THE WASATCH FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH RAINFALL
REACHING WEST CENTRAL UTAH AND INTO THE SANPETE VALLEY BY LATE
MORNING. FIRST WAVE LOWERS 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO -2C TO -3C OVER
THE GSL. ENOUGH FOR SNOW ADVISORY IN THE WASATCH RANGE ON MONDAY.
CYCLONIC FLOW CONCENTRATES ON NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH MONDAY WITH PVA
AND COOLING NEAR 500 MB INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CUTS
ACROSS THE NORTH IN WESTERLY MEAN FLOW. MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS WHICH SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE UTAH.

STRONGER JET STREAK PROGGED UPSTREAM TO DIVE SOUTH ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WHICH CARVES DEEPER INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THEN SWINGS INTO SOUTHERN UTAH EARLY TUESDAY.
AFTER EVENING PRECIPITATION SLIDES SOUTH...THE NORTH WILL TAPER OFF
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH
CENTRAL UTAH WILL FOCUS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. 18Z GFS AND 00Z/16 NAM GENERALLY AGREE
THE MAIN FOCUS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL COME FROM A 700 MB
CIRCULATION THAT TRACKS FROM BETWEEN MILFORD AND CEDAR CITY AND EAST
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CASTLE COUNTRY...SAN RAFAEL AND BOOK
CLIFFS. LOCALLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THE INTENSE BANDING
WHICH COULD DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL TO CENTRAL UTAH...DOWN TO
5500-6000 FEET...ADVISORY LEVELS. COLD POOL ALOFT WITH -24C AT 500
MB DRIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL REDEVELOP
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE BANDING IN THE SOUTH
WEAKENS TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

SNOW LEVELS IN THE NORTH COULD DROP INTO THE BENCHES LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COOLEST AIR ARRIVES. AIR MASS SUPPORTS
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL WITH POSSIBLE BANDING IN UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW
TO MID LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOCAL UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO OCCUR DOWN ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR INTO
SOUTHWEST UTAH...WITH SNOW LEVELS ALONG THE INTERSTATE. UPPER TROUGH
AXIS CROSSES UTAH AND STRONG WARMING IN THE UPPER LEVELS OCCURS ON
WEDNESDAY SO PRECIPITATION TAPERS AND THEN ENDS BY AFTERNOON. WARM
ADVECTION NORTHWEST FLOW PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO NORTHEAST UTAH AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARDS THE ROCKIES.

CURRENT FORECAST SLIGHTLY TOO FAST WITH TIMING IN NORTHERN UTAH
TONIGHT THOUGH EXPECT INCREASING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHERN
WASATCH FRONT AFTER 3 AM...AND RAPIDLY EXPANDING SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT TOWARD 6 AM. THE MODERATE FORCING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS WITH
TOP-DOWN MOISTENING. WILL CONSIDER INCREASING CHANCES FOR MONDAY IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS...MOST SIGNIFICANT AREAS WILL BE THE NORTHERN
WASATCH FRONT BENCHES AND MOUNTAINS. DUE TO DURATION AND A BREAK
MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS INITIALLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS ADVISORY AMOUNTS
ON TRACK FOR THE NORTH...BUT CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAHS HIGHER
TERRAIN COULD BE TARGETED FOR WARNING AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR UPPER VALLEYS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING IN THE CORE OF THIS BAND. LOWER
SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS EVENT WILL DECREASE IMMEDIATE RUNOFF BUT
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE LOW LANDS COULD BRING HYDRO ISSUES BY
TUESDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL UTAH AND PARTS OF SOUTHER UTAH.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT WITH NEAR 8000 FT
BY 10Z AND THEN FALLING TO 5000 FEET BY 13Z. WIND SHIFT FROM COLD
FRONT TARGETED FOR NEAR 12Z...LITTLE FASTER THAN ADVERTISED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR MONDAY MORNING IN RAIN.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...SNOW ADVISORY ABOVE 8000 FEET MONDAY FOR ZONES 7 AND 8.
WY...NONE.

&&

TARDY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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