Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1038 AM MDT MON AUG 7 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
EAST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. A DRY COOL FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY COOLING AND DRYING THE NORTH WHILE KEEPING THE SOUTH MOIST
INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING AS 70 KNOT JET AT 200 MB
NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AS REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE TO THE EAST. TROUGH CENTER WILL
MOVE ASHORE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
EXIT REGION MOVES INTO PLACE OVER CENTRAL UTAH.  THIS WILL PUT
NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT OVER THE NORTH
PORTION OF THE AREA WITH 700 MB MIXING RATIO AROUND 4-6 G/KG. MOST
MOISTURE AVAILABLE OVER THE AREA STILL REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH WITH 700 MB MIXING RATIOS NEARING 8 G/KG NEAR LAKE POWELL.

TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY MORNING.
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS 90 KNOT
JET NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE AREA. A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SHEAR EXISTS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH ON WEDNESDAY WITH STILL
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AT THE LOWER LEVELS. GFS BRING 50
KNOT JET OVER CENTRAL UTAH AT 400 MB WHILE LOWER LEVELS STILL REMAIN
LIGHT. 700 MB MIXING RATIOS STILL REMAINS IN THE 4-6 G/KG RANGE
FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
SLIGHT COOLING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FOR LATE WEEK. THE SYSTEMS DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT THE RIDGE SHOULD
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING A WARMING
TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...LAKE BREEZE SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK FOR 21Z TIMEFRAME IN
UPDATED FORECAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD DELAY THE ONSET UNTIL
22Z AND EVEN POSSIBLY 23Z. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH TODAY BETWEEN 20Z AND 04Z WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...A 20 PERCENT CHANCE...OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z.
KSLC APPROACH WILL LIKELY HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE AREA...
WELL BEFORE THE KSLC TERMINAL SEES A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SPOTTY HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
FROM NEAR RICHFIELD NORTH TO THE WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WAS GOOD TO EXCELLENT FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT MODERATE...25-35 PERCENT...FOR THE WESTERN VALLEYS FROM
BERYL...NORTH TO I-80. DRIER AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
CLIFTON FLAT AND TULE VALLEY RAWS IN ZONES 420 AND 434 HAVE RH BELOW
20 PERCENT ALREADY THIS MORNING. A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
WILL BRING NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY AND STRONGER WINDS FOR
TUESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY.

&&

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ZONES 420-433>435-439-440 FROM
     TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
WY...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/AVIATION...HALL
FIRE WEATHER...GIBSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1050 AM MDT MON AUG 7 2006

UPDATED TO INDICATE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY AND TUESDAY

UTZ001>021-WYZ021-081300-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-CASTLE COUNTRY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS-GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-GREAT SALT LAKE
DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-HENRY MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-SALT LAKE
AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-SOUTH
CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-SOUTHWEST UTAH-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-WASATCH
MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-WASATCH
PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-WESTERN UINTA BASIN-WESTERN
UINTA MOUNTAINS-
1050 AM MDT MON AUG 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS
OF UTAH AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SMALL
HAIL. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WESTERN UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
THE BEST THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE I-15
CORRIDOR FROM FILLMORE TO SALT LAKE CITY AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS.

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST UTAH ON TUESDAY.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING PERIOD (SLCRFWSLC).

MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
UTAH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GIBSON