Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1036 AM MDT SUN AUG 6 2006

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE TO THE EAST WILL KEEP A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE AREA ARE
CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE MORE
LIMITED OVER THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FIRST DISTURBANCE. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHERN...
EASTERN...AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA REMAINS MOIST
THOUGH...AND WITH DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA...FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS. GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE
BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. FLOW
REMAINS LIGHT OVER THE AREA SO SOME STORMS MAY BE SLOW-MOVING.

DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA IS THE FIRST OF MANY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO
BE WHAT IS CURRENTLY COMING ASHORE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MAIN CONCERN IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
TONIGHT. MIXING RATIOS DROP OFF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA-UTAH
BORDER...THE AREA CLOSEST TO THE WAVE. NAM AND GFS SEEM TO BE
EXCITED ABOUT THE WAVE THOUGH. POPS WILL BUMPED TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO TROUGH DYNAMICS OVER THE AREA. MAIN TROUGH ENERGY
SLIDES OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GFS
INDICATES 90 KNOT JET PUSHING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. NAM IS
SLIGHTLY WEAKER...BUT IN STILL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AS FAR
TIMING OF BEST JET DYNAMICS. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE UKMET
HOLDS THE TROUGH BACK A BIT...DELAYING BEST DYNAMICS BY ABOUT 6-12
HOURS.

RIDGE SHOULD REDEVELOP FOR LATE WEEK AS ECMWF SUGGESTS. BUT A NEW
GFS SOLUTION HAS DEVELOPED...TENDING TO WANT TO BRING A BROADER
TROUGH OVER THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK. FORECAST WILL BE CONSERVATIVE
FOR NOW...KEEPING A MEAN RIDGE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THE KSLC TERMINAL
COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN THE
HOURS 18Z AND 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SEVERAL NEW STARTS WERE REPORTED ACROSS NORTHWEST
UTAH THIS MORNING...RESULTING FROM DRY LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT. WITH A
COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS...MOST SITES REPORTED PRECIP OF .10 OR LESS
FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT. MOST OF THESE SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE UPPER LOW OFF CA COAST
EXPECTED TO EJECT INLAND ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE
IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN UT MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR
SPREADING INTO THE AREA AS WELL MAY ALLOW FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THIS AREA WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/AVIATION...HALL
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN