Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
332 AM MDT TUE AUG 1 2006

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH TODAY. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL
FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IDAHO THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...THEN MOVE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. TROUGH WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF UTAH AS IT SLIDES BY THE AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH FROM CENTRAL
NEVADA. DRY SLOT ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR APPEARS TO BE POKING INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH AT THIS TIME
AND EXPECT THIS TO INHIBIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY. MODELS SHOW A PRETTY PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT WITH THE COOLEST
AIR LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN UTAH. NAM HAS A VORT LOBE
ABOUT THE SAME TIME AND JET DYNAMICS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. COMBINE
THIS WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS CLEAR. WILL KEEP BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z THIS AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY
DECREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

DRIER WESTERLIES WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER TROUGH FOR LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE COULD START TO WORK BACK
INTO SOUTHERN UTAH BY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES
IN ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE RIDGE REBOUNDS WEST A BIT INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND COLORADO. THIS WILL USHER IN A DIURNAL PATTERN OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NORTHWEST DESERTS AND
SHOULD BE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE KSLC BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.
CURRENT TAF ADDRESSES SLOWING AS FRONT IS RATHER SHALLOW AND WEAK.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET...BUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CEILINGS WILL FALL BELOW 7000 FEET IN RAIN SHOWERS EXISTS
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A
THUNDERSTORM COULD OCCUR WITHIN THAT TIME PERIOD. AREA SHOULD
STABILIZE SOME BEHIND FRONT..BUT A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER ALL BUT
THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST FIRE WEATHER ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY. A DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF UTAH FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO WET THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND EAST.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/FIRE WX...YOUNG
AVIATION.........HALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
600 AM MDT TUE AUG 1 2006

UTZ001>021-WYZ021-021200-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-CASTLE COUNTRY-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SOUTHWEST UTAH-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-
WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WEST CENTRAL UTAH-WESTERN UINTA BASIN-WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MDT TUE AUG 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS
OF UTAH AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. LESS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY SOME
OF THESE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO
UTAH FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
927 AM MDT TUE AUG 01 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 ESE GRANTSVILLE       40.56N 112.40W
08/01/2006  M60 MPH          TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            TEAD NORTH MESONET STATION

&&

CGIBSON