Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

000 
WWUS55 KSLC 102031
SVSSLC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
231 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2006

UTC013-102045-
/O.CON.KSLC.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-060710T2045Z/
DUCHESNE UT-
231 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL DUCHESNE COUNTY...

AT 228 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF DUCHESNE...MOVING EAST AT 20 
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MYTON BY 240 PM MDT

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4019 11037 4002 11031 4010 10983 4032 10991

$$

HALL

000 
WWUS55 KSLC 102045
SVSSLC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
244 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2006

UTC013-102053-
/O.EXP.KSLC.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-060710T2045Z/
DUCHESNE UT-
244 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL DUCHESNE COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 245 PM MDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER DUCHESNE COUNTY HAS WEAKENED AND IS 
MOVING INTO UINTAH COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4019 11037 4002 11031 4010 10983 4032 10991

$$

HALL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
920 AM MDT MON JUL 10 2006

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY DRY AND WARM UP
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF ALTOCUMULUS CASTELLANUS AND SOME VIRGA OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST NEVADA TO SOUTHWEST UTAH. SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER DEPICTS MOISTURE STILL OVER UTAH WITH .6
TO .9 INCHES OVER NORTHERN VALLEYS AND UP TO 1.25 IN THE FAR SOUTH.
TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGS IT TO ABOUT THE SPINE OF UTAH BY
MIDDAY. THUS FROM ABOUT I-15 AND EASTWARD AN ACTIVE CONVECTION
SHOULD MATERIALIZE. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL CONSIDER ADDING
PRECIPITATION TO THE WASATCH FRONT. THE DRY TONGUE THAT WAS OVER
NORTHWEST UTAH YESTERDAY HAS FILLED IN WITH VALUES AGAIN DOUBLING AT
KSLC DUE TO MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. STANSBURY AND OQUIRRH
RANGES WILL LIKELY FIRE UP MIDDAY AND WITH FLOW NOW BACKED TO
WESTERLY THIS WILL CARRY CELLS IN THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT. MODEL
BUFR DATA DEPICTS STABILIZATION ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THIS
WAVE AND FOR KSLC THIS STARTS ABOUT 21 ZULU. HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH
STORMS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING WILL INITIALLY DELAY STRONG STORMS IN THE SOUTH. MODELS PROG
MUCH OF THIS TO ERODE THROUGH MIDDAY. LESS ACTIVITY TODAY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST UTAH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHERE MANY THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED.

UPPER TROUGH HANGS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING SO CONVECTION
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THERE WELL INTO THE EVENING...AND MAY CONTINUE IN
A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE INTO THE NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS UPPER
TROUGH THE NAM-WRF DEVELOPS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER WESTERN IRON
AND BEAVER COUNTIES UNDER LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH IS A TYPICAL
FAVORED AREA. WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A CIRCULATION LAGGING BACK OVER
SOUTHWEST NEVADA THIS MORNING. 06Z RUN OF THE GFS HAS SIMILAR
DEPICTION KEEPING MAX CAPE AREA THIS EVENING OF THE SOUTHWEST
REGION. THIS POSES HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS IN AN AREA THAT HAS BEEN
ACTIVE DURING THE PAST WEEK. 12Z NAM-WRF NOW DEPICTS A CIRCULATION
SITTING OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH TONIGHT AND THEN TRACKS INTO ACROSS
CENTRAL UTAH ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS WESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER
NORTHERN UTAH BUT STILL ALLOWS MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN DESERTS. 06Z GFS HAS A SIMILAR FEATURE FOR CENTRAL UTAH ON
TUESDAY WHILE ALSO BRINGING A WEAK VORT MAX INTO NORTHWEST UTAH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS TUESDAY LOOKS JUST AS ACTIVE AS TODAY AND
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AS WELL AS EASTERN UTAH.

BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING. HOWEVER ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR TERRAIN DRIVEN CONVECTION...EVEN
IN THE NORTHERN FAVORED MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE APPEARS TO LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH DRYING OVER THE NORTH. BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 16C WEDNESDAY RISING TO
16-17C THURSDAY IN NORTHERN UTAH. UPPER RIDGE BACKING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY COULD BRING 18C 700 MB TEMPS TO MOST OF UTAH. 594 DM
HEIGHTS OVER THE STATE AND WEAK FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. POTENTIAL FOR 100F AT SLC.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL GENERATE SOME CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM BUT SOUTHERN SALT
LAKE COUNTY HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF CELLS COMING OFF THE OQUIRRHS AS
EARLY AS MIDDAY UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TIMING OF LAKE BREEZE
APPEARS TO BE MID AFTERNOON WITH A THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING FURTHER
NORTH INTO THE NORTHWEST DESERTS THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE
NEAR 19-20Z COULD ALSO SUPPORT A WIND SHIFT AT THAT TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH FOR A
CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRYING TREND WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH ACROSS AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
UTAH TO APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

TARDY

FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
500 AM MDT MON JUL 10 2006

UTZ001>021-WYZ021-111200-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-CASTLE COUNTRY-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SOUTHWEST UTAH-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-
WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WEST CENTRAL UTAH-WESTERN UINTA BASIN-WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
500 AM MDT MON JUL 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF UTAH AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AND
THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH AND UINTA COUNTY
WYOMING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A DRYING TREND WITH GRADUALLY RISING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWER HUMIDITY...INCREASING AFTERNOON WINDS AND
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING WILL INCREASE THE FIRE RISK...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH
FRIDAY BUT THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL STILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER