Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
310 PM MDT TUE JUN 13 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST STATES WILL PUSH
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FINALLY MOVING EAST OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS UTAH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...USHERING IN COOLER AIR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES
WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD...FINALLY CLEARING THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT.  A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE PERIOD.  STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...GIVEN 700 MB
WINDS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 40 KTS.  GOING WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE MOISTURE SURGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH AN AXIS
OF PW VALUES NEAR THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FROM THE GREAT SALT LAKE
TO SOUTHWEST UTAH.  SOME ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL SHORTWAVE.  WITH MORE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO REGION AND AREA BEING UNDER LEFT EXIT REGION
OF 110 KT 300 MB JET...AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN
AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN NV AND
NORTHWEST UTAH...THEN SPREAD EAST.  LIMITING FACTOR AT THE MOMENT IS
INSTABILITY...BUT STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP TO OVERCOME
THIS.  GIVEN STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD
AIRMASS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN UTAH WHERE BEST LIFT INDICATED.
DRYER AIR PUNCHING INTO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
SOUTHERN UTAH DRY.  WITH BASE OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAVE BOOSTED POPS A BIT.  ZONAL
FLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VERY WINDY TODAY WITH AWW COVERING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE 02-08Z TIMEFRAME. FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED IN 12-14Z TIMEFRAME WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
7000 FT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING CEILINGS TO MVFR THROUGH 16Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE FIRE DISTRICT THIS EVENING
AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FIRE DISTRICT TOMORROW
WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT RED
FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF THE FIRE DISTRICT THIS EVENING WILL ALSO ADD TO THE FIRE DANGER.
WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY OVER ALL EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHEAST
UTAH...WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING
     FOR UTZ420-423-424-431>433-435>441-445>449.
     RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT 12 PM TO 9 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     UTZ431>433-435>441-445>449.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     441-447>449
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING
     FOR UTZ005-015-016.
WY...NONE.

&&

BARJENBRUCH/SMITH/CHENG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
612 AM MDT TUE JUN 13 2006

UTZ001>009-015-WYZ021-141215-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
612 AM MDT TUE JUN 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
WEST CENTRAL UTAH.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THESE
WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO RESULT IN SEVERE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR WESTERN UTAH WHERE WINDS MAY GUST IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AT TIMES.

HIGH BASED MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND RESULT IN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS TO RESULT IN SEVERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL UTAH.

OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

UTZ010>014-016>021-141215-
WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-
SAN RAFAEL SWELL-SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-
612 AM MDT TUE JUN 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...AN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO RESULT IN SEVERE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...INCREASING HIGH BASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WINDY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH ON WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.