Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1041 AM MDT THU OCT 5 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE STORM OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF THE STATE AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWESTERN UTAH IS TRACKING QUICKLY INTO THE
WEST DESERTS. WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THAT AREA. CLOSED LOW
REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
DRIFT ONSHORE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES SO...THE JET
MAX OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN MORE
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AMPLE
MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE...BUT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN TODAY. MODELS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1 INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THIS EVENING. WITH
THESE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH WHERE THE
GREATEST MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CONTINUES MOVING INLAND ON FRIDAY...REACHING THE STATE AS
AN OPEN WAVE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
BE STRONGEST AT THIS POINT AND COMBINED WITH STRONG
SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS PUT MUCH OF UTAH IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY IN THE LATEST CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. AIRMASS
DRIES OUT FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH
EXITS. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN PREDICTING THAT A
PIECE OF THE TROUGH WILL BREAK AWAY AND CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RETURN MOISTURE TO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH AND COULD RESULT IN MORE WET WEATHER
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS STILL FORECASTING A LARGE AREA OF 2 TO 4 INCH STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH. RIVER FORECAST
CENTER HYDRO MODELS INDICATING RESPONSE ON EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
UTAH RIVERS WITH PEAK FLOW BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. SMALLER
STREAMS AND WASHES SHOULD SEE RISING WATER BEGINNING THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AROUND SLC THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS WILL BE ERRATIC IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR...THOUGH
WILL OCCASIONALLY DIP BELOW 7000 FT IN SHOWERS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR UTZ010-012-013-017>021.

WY...NONE.

&&

TRAPHAGAN/CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
627 AM MDT THU OCT 5 2006

UTZ001>021-WYZ021-061300-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
627 AM MDT THU OCT 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UTAH...
NORTHERN UTAH...SOUTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
EMBEDDED IN THE AREAS OF RAINFALL. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ON NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND STREAMS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LOCAL HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK
AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM...RESTRICTING ANY SNOWFALL TO
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...ABOVE 12000 FEET. ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE.

RAIN WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

GIBSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
207 PM MDT THU OCT 05 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0151 PM     FLASH FLOOD      12 NNW BIG WATER        37.23N 111.75W
10/05/2006                   KANE               UT   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            FLOODING ALONG WAHWEAP CREEK. ROADS WASHED OUT.

&&

LCHENG