Red Flag Warning 25, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
850 PM MDT SUN JUL 23 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  LOOK
FOR THE RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
HOT WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL UTAH
THIS EVENING PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE RESULTED IN LESSER AREAL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THAN WHAT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. PLUME OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND
THIS HIGH ACROSS NEVADA HAS SPREAD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
UT THIS EVENING...WHERE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ONGOING AT
THIS TIME. WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIGINATING FROM NORTHEAST
NV CONVECTION NOTED ON KMTX 88-D IMAGERY RACING EAST ACROSS GREAT
SALT LAKE AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WASATCH FRONT AS WELL AS THE TOOELE VALLEY.

OTHERWISE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH SALT LAKE
EARLIER TODAY THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED SATURDAY. SHALLOW COLD POOL
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY KEPT KSLC FROM REACHING RECORD MAX
TODAY...ALTHOUGH MERCURY WAS STILL ABLE TO EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK.
EXPECT A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK
AS MID LEVEL RIDGE DAMPENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH JUST A BIT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES WASATCH
FRONT...OTHERWISE WILL PLAN TO UPDATE FORECAST ONCE CONVECTION
ACROSS AREA DIMINISHES LATER THIS EVENING.

NOTE - KICX RADAR WILL BE DOWN UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
A MAJOR HARDWARE UPGRADE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THESE AREAS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND EXPECT
TO ALLOW WARNING TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG OUT FLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS GREAT
SALT LAKE IS EXPECTED TO REACH KSLC BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z. THIS WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. OTHERWISE
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND IMPACT KSLC BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. GUSTY WINDS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD THEY
FORM.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS UTZ420-434.
WY...NONE.

&&

SEAMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
700 AM MDT SUN JUL 23 2006

UTZ001>021-WYZ021-241200-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
700 AM MDT SUN JUL 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF UTAH
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH. SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH. SEE THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
SITUATION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS MODERATE FOR SOUTHWESTERN UTAH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MOISTURE TRAPPED THIS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER UTAH AND THE
SURROUNDING AREAS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.