Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

000 
WGUS75 KSLC 150045
FFSSLC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
642 PM MDT SAT OCT 14 2006

UTC017-025-150052-
GARFIELD UT-KANE UT-
642 PM MDT SAT OCT 14 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM MDT FOR EASTERN KANE
AND SOUTH CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTIES...

RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT RAINFALL SHOULD BE MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD
AND LIGHTER.

THE PARIA RIVER NEAR HIGHWAY 89 CONTINUES TO RUN VERY HIGH.
A GAGE ON THE RIVER HAS PEAKED TO 1000 CFS. RUNOFF FROM EARLIER
HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAIN INTO THE AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS
SO WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS EVENING...BUT THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED.


LAT...LON 3705 11217 3703 11141 3725 11103 3769 11077
      3764 11186 3745 11214

$$

TARDY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
401 PM MDT SAT OCT 14 2006

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY. A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE STATE ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED TO THE NEVADA/ARIZONA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AROUND ITS
CENTER NEAR THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL...THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER HAS
BEEN ISOLATED AT BEST. ON RADAR...THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE STRONGEST
IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA BUT ARE WEAKENING AS
THEY MOVE TOWARD THE LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA AND HAVE SO FAR REMAINED SOUTH OF UTAH.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...AND SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH HAVE
ALREADY SEEN OVER 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN. PRECIPITATION FOCUS WILL
KEEP SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW INTO ARIZONA.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN UTAH. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

BETWEEN THE NEVADA THUNDERSTORMS AND THE RAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
UTAH...A DRY SLOT HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN UTAH. AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TRACKING TO THE EAST...THE STORMS AROUND IT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA NOW OCCUPIED BY THE DRY SLOT. THE
HEATING THE AREA HAS RECEIVED MAKES CONDITIONS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORMS...BUT OVERALL THE AREA IS TOO FAR
REMOVED FROM THE LOW TO MAINTAIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

THE BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE STATE MONDAY MORNING AND STALL
DURING THE DAY. MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND REACH SOUTHERN UTAH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. NAM IS A LITTLE BIT STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN
THE GFS...BUT BOTH BRING -5 TO -6C 700MB TEMPERATURES INTO
NORTHERN UTAH...SIGNFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE +4 AIR CURRENTLY OVER
THE AREA. STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS
TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.

GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE AFTER TUESDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER
TROUGH. 12Z GFS MOVES THE TROUGH INTO COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND PREDICTS AND PUTS THE AREA IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. IN THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION...THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DIG SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE AREA REMAINS IN AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LEFT THE
EXTENDED MOSTLY UNCHANGED FOR NOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...AND QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN 24 HOUR
RAIN TOTALS ABOVE 1 INCH...WITH SOME ALONG THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER
APPROACHES 1.5 INCHES. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA. SO FAR...HAVE RECEIVED NO REPORTS OF
FLOODING IN THE CWA BUT ENOUGH RAIN HAS FALLEN TO CAUSE FLOODING
WITHIN SLOT CANYONS AND NORMALLY DRY WASHES. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR AN AREA EXTENDING FROM AROUND
ZION NATIONAL PARK TO THE GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA AND INTO THE
SAN RAFAEL SWELL. RAIN WILL CONTINUE AFTER THIS POINT BUT SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...SEE LATEST SLCTAFSLC.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY FOR UTZ013-018>021.

WY...NONE.

&&

TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 AM MDT SAT OCT 14 2006

UTZ012>021-151100-
CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-
WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
HENRY MOUNTAINS-UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-
SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-
416 AM MDT SAT OCT 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UTAH
AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLOWS THROUGH
SLOT CANYONS AND NORMALLY DRY WASHES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...AND
RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS SLICK ROCK AREAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

UTZ001>011-WYZ021-151100-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
416 AM MDT SAT OCT 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UTAH...
NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING...USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. A CHANCE OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
MONDAY...AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)