Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

000 
WGUS75 KSLC 080225
FFSSLC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
822 PM MDT THU SEP 7 2006

UTC049-080232-
UTAH UT-
822 PM MDT THU SEP 7 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 830 PM MDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH COUNTY...

RAIN IS NO LONGER FALLING ACROSS THE AREA..AND THE THREAT OF FLASH 
FLOODING HAS DECREASED. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINS MAY MAKE STEEP 
TERRAIN VUNERABLE TO MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENT BURN AREAS.

LAT...LON 3983 11158 3983 11106 4003 11124 4018 11127
      4018 11156

$$

BAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
415 PM MDT THU SEP 7 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER S/CNTRL UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON A STEADY INCREASE OVER
SRN/CNTRL UTAH...ESPECIALLY IN THE WRAP AROUND W-NW FLANK OF THE
LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...
THEN WORK IN NE UTAH BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SLOW GRINDING NATURE OF
THIS FEATURE COULD LEAD TO MORE THAN A FEW AREAS RECEIVING HEAVY
PRECIP INTO AND THROUGH FRIDAY.

UP NORTH CLOUD COVER AND WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING HAVE KEPT CONVECTION
ON THE WEAK SIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THE APPARENT VORTICITY MAX
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OUT OF SRN IDAHO WILL SETTLE INTO EXTREME NE NV
OVERNIGHT. MODELS DO NOT MAKE MUCH OF THIS FEATURE...YET HAS
EXPANDED NEAR THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MODELS
DO HOLD THE VORTICITY MAX BACK IN NV INTO FRIDAY. NOT REALLY
CONFIDENT THAT THE MODELS ARE TREATING THIS FEATURE PROPERLY.
SUSPECT THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO NRN UTAH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER N/CNTRL UTAH.

UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SLIDE EAST INTO UTAH FOR THE WEEKEND.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING UPPER LOW SHOULD FEED
ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BOTH DAYS. BEYOND SUNDAY
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS...IS LOW. THE GFS
HAS BOUNCED ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SPLITTING TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS ASIDE...WOULD THINK THE BEST
SOLUTION WOULD BE FOR A WEAKENING VORTICITY LOBE MOVING THROUGH
UTAH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH SOME CHANCE THAT A WEAK
CIRCULATION MAY HANG BACK OVER NV FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP MODEST POPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...THEN TEND DOWN FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN UTAH WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE TERMINAL WILL BE
AFFECTED BY A THUNDERSTORM EXISTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LOW OVER SRN UTAH LOOKS TO GENERATE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD...AND FOR THE MOST PART...WETTING RAIN TONIGHT ACROSS
SRN/CNTRL/ERN UTAH. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST E/CNTRL
THROUGH NE UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE NE. THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL REDUCE THE THREAT FOR
CONVECTION...THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FROM THE LATE WEEK
STORM TO GENERATE A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/FIRE WX....CONGER
AVIATION....YOUNG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
425 AM MDT THU SEP 7 2006

UTZ001>008-015-WYZ021-081100-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-
SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WEST CENTRAL UTAH-
425 AM MDT THU SEP 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN UTAH AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND...
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

UTZ009>014-016>021-081100-
CASTLE COUNTRY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
SAN RAFAEL SWELL-SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
SOUTHWEST UTAH-UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-
WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-WESTERN UINTA BASIN-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
425 AM MDT THU SEP 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH
AND MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS
AREAS NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER AND ACROSS THE EASTERN VALLEYS OF UTAH.

THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS HIGH FOR TODAY...THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEED TO BE ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TARDY