Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
810 PM MDT SUN JUL 30 2006

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER
THE PLAINS STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
MOIST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH BY EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WIND
SHIFT CONTINUES TO PRESS ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING. THIS
BOUNDARY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND TIMED WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY BROUGHT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO UTAH THIS AFTERNOON FROM PROVO TO EVANSTON
SOUTHWARD. NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE THE AIR MASS STABILIZED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO NVA DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. STRONGEST STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TERRAIN AND AIDED
FROM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OCCURRED FROM LOA TO BRIAN HEAD AND ACROSS
MUCH OF KANE COUNTY. FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR KANE COUNTY
THIS HOUR WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES A LARGE ARE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
MANY 3+ INCH MAXES OVER THE GRAND STAIRCASE.

CURRENTLY STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN NEAR
KODACHROME AND NEAR CEDAR BREAKS...JUST SOUTH OF A LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY OBSERVED FROM THE SAN RAFAEL SWELL TO SOUTHWEST UTAH...AND
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
WITH UPPER TROUGH PRESSING EAST AND LOSS OF HEATING...BUT SOME
ACTIVITY PERSISTING IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF UTAH. A SEPARATE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS OVER EASTERN NEVADA...THIS IS PROGGED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN UTAH LATER TONIGHT AND BACK THE MEAN FLOW
TO SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN
UTAH THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME RETURNING BACK TO
THE IDAHO BORDER AND GSL REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

UPDATED EARLIER TO REMOVE WEATHER IN NORTHWEST UTAH EXCEPT NEAR THE
WYOMING AND NEVADA BORDERS. LEFT LOW CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE
RETURN SURGE OF MOISTURE AFTER MIDNIGHT SPREADING NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. HOWEVER MOST OF THIS WILL BE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH...IT WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN DESERTS
TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL ADVECT ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH WITH THIS NEXT WAVE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL DROP A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...SOUTH
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND SPREAD MOISTURE BACK TO THE
IDAHO BORDER. SIMILAR AIR MASS TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND HEATING OF
THE DAY WILL REDEVELOP CONVECTION OVER THE SPINE OF UTAH...BUT
FASTER MORNING STORMS. THE MORNING SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL UTAH AND INTO FAR NORTHERN UTAH BY MIDDAY. MODERATE UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD PERIOD OF
DYNAMICS AND BAROCLINIC ZONE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. THIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REST OF UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRYING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WARMING TREND LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...NORMAL DRAINAGE WIND. 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WORKED ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS AND WETTING
RAINS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY STORMS THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FILTER IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

TARDY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
700 AM MDT SUN JUL 30 2006

UTZ001>011-WYZ021-311300-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH
FRONT-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-WASATCH MOUNTAINS
I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK
CLIFFS-WESTERN UINTA BASIN-WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
700 AM MDT SUN JUL 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NORTHERN UTAH AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE COMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

UTZ012>021-311300-
CASTLE COUNTRY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-GLEN CANYON RECREATION
AREA/LAKE POWELL-HENRY MOUNTAINS-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-SANPETE/SEVIER
VALLEYS-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION
NATIONAL PARK-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-
700 AM MDT SUN JUL 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN UTAH.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FAR SOUTHWEST VALLEYS OF UTAH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF UTAH
DURING THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THIS
MOISTURE EACH DAY DURING THE COMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
843 PM MDT SUN JUL 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LOA                     38.40N 111.64W
07/30/2006  M1.00 INCH       WAYNE              UT   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RAIN OCCURRED IN 30 MINUTES AND CAUSED DITCH AND BASEMENT
            FLOODING

0430 PM     FLASH FLOOD      15 SE CANNONVILLE       37.41N 111.86W
07/30/2006                   KANE               UT   AMATEUR RADIO

            KODACHROME BASIN REPORTS FLOODING IN PARK AND 0.86
            RAINFALL.

0820 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 E CEDAR CITY          37.69N 112.96W
07/30/2006  E0.00 INCH       IRON               UT   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY RAIN CAUSED MUD SLIDES ALONG ROUTE 14. ROAD WAS
            CLOSED DUE TO DEBRIS.

&&

ATARDY