Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
330 PM MDT THU JUL 20 2006

.SYNOPSIS...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST TO NORTHERN
NEVADA BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW OVER ALL
BUT SOUTHERN PORTIONS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS REMAIN RATHER MOIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE BACK OVER UTAH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING MOISTURE
TO RETURN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE INDICATING THAT DESPITE RATHER HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINT STILL IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN UTAH IT HAS BEEN HARD TO GET
CONVECTION TO FIRE UP. APPARENTLY SHORT WAVE THAT WENT BY TO THE
NORTH THIS MORNING IN COMBINATION WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING TO
THE EAST OF THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST OVER NEVADA HAS PUT AT
LEAST A WEAK CAP OVER NORTHERN UTAH. SOME BUILDUPS THAT OCCURRED IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE SINCE FALLEN APART. THEREFORE HAVE SHAVED
POPS IN THE NORTH FOR THIS EVENING AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT.

THE NORTH WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER SUNDAY EVENING.
THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
CENTRAL AREAS DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OVER CLOUD COVER. DUE TO COOLER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HAVE BACKED OFF JUST A TAD FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY FROM ABOUT SLC NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN HIT THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES OCCURRING WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR ENOUGH MOVEMENT IN ADDITION
TO THEM NOT BEING IN FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS TO CAUSE ANY
PROBLEMS.  THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BUT THEY
SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET DUE TO LACK OF ANY APPARENT
FORCING MECHANISM. MOISTURE NOT ADVERTISED TO BE REMOVED COMPLETELY
ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHEAST MAY SEE ITS DRIEST DAY ON
SATURDAY AS THE NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER. HAVE
LOWERED THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN UTAH FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO MODERATE AND LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY DUE TO
A LITTLE MORE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS SETTING IN.

HOT EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT AS THE RIDGE WANDERS BACK ACROSS UTAH
MOISTURE WILL RETURN. EC A LITTLE FLATTER WITH RIDGE THAN GFS BY
MIDWEEK. WILL USE A MIX OF MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE ONLY CONCERNS WILL BE THE HOT TEMPERATURES
EACH AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON THE DENSITY
ALTITUDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.

OTHERWISE  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND TO
THE DISTRICT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MOST PRONOUNCED DRYING
IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH...WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSER TO NORMAL IN SOUTHERN UTAH. MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE
WY...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC AND AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
440 AM MDT THU JUL 20 2006

UTZ001>021-WYZ021-211200-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-CASTLE COUNTRY-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SOUTHWEST UTAH-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-
WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WEST CENTRAL UTAH-WESTERN UINTA BASIN-WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
440 AM MDT THU JUL 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS
OF UTAH AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST UTAH WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL EXIST FROM THE CASTLE COUNTRY AND WASATCH PLATEAU
SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH WHERE A BOUNDARY WILL
INTERACT WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS HIGH
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN UTAH.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN
UTAH FROM OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER WITH WESTERN UTAH.

MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN UTAH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON
READINGS AT OR JUST ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
AND NEAR 110 IN DIXIE AND SOUTHEAST UTAH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TARDY