Wind Advisory 7, NWS San Angelo, TX

000 
WWUS74 KSJT 072356
NPWSJT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
656 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

.A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. ITS DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING.

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-154-
155-080300-
/O.EXT.KSJT.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-060408T0300Z/
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-HASKELL-
THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-
MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROTAN...ROBY...SWEETWATER...
STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...BALLINGER...WINTERS...
MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...EDEN...HASKELL...THROCKMORTON...WOODSON...
STAMFORD...ANSON...HAMLIN...ALBANY...ABILENE...CLYDE...BAIRD...
CROSS PLAINS...COLEMAN...BROWNWOOD...BRADY...SAN SABA
656 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

EXPECT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
331 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

.SHORT TERM...
LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE DAY OF WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY PULLS OUT OF THE PLAINS TODAY. SFC DRYLINE
REMAINS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL TX ALONG I-35 THIS MORNING. THE
DRYLINE SHOULD MAKE SOME MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE IN S NEBRASKA PUSHES EAST. GFS/NAM 00Z INITIALIZATIONS
SEEM NOT TO RESOLVE A DEEP ENOUGH LOW PRESSURE WHICH MAY RESULT
IN A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE REGION. THE 06Z
RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS WHICH SUPPORTS STRONGER
WINDS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE LATE THIS MORNING. ALSO ANOTHER POTENT
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD DIVE INTO THE BOTTOM OF
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO AID IN
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS WELL. FEEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WINDS SO WIND ADVISORY IS
NEEDED FOR BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND. WITH DRY
AIR IN PLACE...ALSO NEED RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL AREAS. WINDS
SHOULD EXCEED CRITERIA ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY SHOULD BE BELOW 20 PERCENT.

DESPITE THE POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE NAM...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH THE
NAM THE COLDEST BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE MOST OF SATURDAY WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST AREAS. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. EARLY NEXT WEEK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT
EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF. WITH THE FRONT
PUSHING WELL INTO THE GULF...MOISTURE SHOULD BE SLOW TO RETURN.

.LONG TERM...
EARLY NEXT WEEK GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH ONE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SCREAMING INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH MEAN TROUGH SITUATED OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SEEM QUITE CONTENT TO KEEP A MEAN
TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
KEEPS UPPER RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MAX TEMPS DURING THE WEEK.
FORECASTED TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT A PERHAPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES WARMER ON MAX TEMPS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ESTABLISHED
ELEVATED MIX LAYER TO MIX DOWN RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS THAN
WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WILL TRY NOT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY AS
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS...BUT STILL
THINK TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MID
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO NONE AS ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
LOOK TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED BY ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH 700MB TEMPS
RUNNING 8C-10C. THIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY THE FACT THAT MOISTURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN AND WILL BE SHALLOW AT BEST ESPECIALLY IN
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE      83  45  66  47 /   0   0   0   0
SAN ANGELO   86  46  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
JUNCTION     90  45  73  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BROWN...CALLAHAN...COKE...COLEMAN...CONCHO...
CROCKETT...FISHER...HASKELL...IRION...JONES...KIMBLE...MASON...
MCCULLOCH...MENARD...NOLAN...RUNNELS...SAN SABA...SCHLEICHER...
SHACKELFORD...STERLING...SUTTON...TAYLOR...THROCKMORTON...AND
TOM GREEN.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BROWN...CALLAHAN...COKE...COLEMAN...CONCHO...FISHER...
HASKELL...IRION...JONES...MCCULLOCH...NOLAN...RUNNELS...SAN
SABA...SHACKELFORD...STERLING...TAYLOR...THROCKMORTON...AND TOM
GREEN.

&&

23/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
256 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-072000-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
256 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AS GUSTY WEST WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES PREVAIL. WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN BY MID EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AFTER A LULL IN THE WINDS LATE TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.