Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
659 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

.AVIATION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. A SURFACE DRYLINE...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CARLSBAD NEW
MEXICO SOUTH INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. BEGINNING AROUND NOON TODAY AND
CONTINUING UNTIL LATE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
NEAR THIS DRYLINE. WE ANTICIPATE MANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60
KNOTS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THEN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

23/HUBER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 300 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006)

SHORT TERM...
LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN AZ AND AN UPPER
LOW DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG LLJ IS
SITUATED OVER SW TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION ONGOING EAST OF THE BIG BEND REGION DRIFTING NORTHEAST.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE THE SW UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST TODAY AND WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH.

AS NOTED ON THE LATEST SPC DAY1...A SERIOUS SCENARIO IS SHAPING UP
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A DRY
LINE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AIDED BY GOOD AFTERNOON HEATING AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY LATER THIS EVENING. GIVEN
GOOD INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR...DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY INTO SUPER-CELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. DURING THE EVENING HOURS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MERGE INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL MOVE
WEST TO EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

BY SATURDAY MORNING A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAVING MOVED INTO EAST
TEXAS.

LONG TERM...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA.
MAX-MIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY SEASONAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

23/HUBER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
506 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-291015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
506 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A SURFACE DRYLINE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG OR NEAR THIS DRYLINE.
EXPECT MANY THUNDERSTORMS TO EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. HOWEVER...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EXPECT SPOTTER ACTIVATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

23/HUBER

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