Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
139 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

.SHORT TERM...FRONT NOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
OVERRUNNING RESULTING IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL A SLIM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER
TO THE FRONT...GENERAL SOUTH OF I-10. WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST...MAY BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER LATE IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD IN THE FORM OF INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND
MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. MODELS ARE TRYING TO LOCK INTO A
SOLUTION...BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT WITH THE
DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND THE NAM
IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE PARALELL NAM/WRF HAS
THE POSITION GOING WELL TO THE SOUTH IN MEXICO...AND WILL
CURRENTLY DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WITH THE GFS TRENDING
SLOWER...WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS...AS
THESE TYPES OF SYSTEM DO TEND TO SLOW DOWN AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. SO WITH THAT IN MIND WILL TREND POPS DOWN SOME
THROUGHOUT. WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKING TO BE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TRICK IS INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING
OUT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME AND LEADS TO
CONFIDENCE ISSUES. SO RAIN IS LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AT SOME
POINT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TIMING THE 12 HOUR POP IS
A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT. SO FAR THIS SPRING...HAVE
SHOWN LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING WARM FRONTAL PLACEMENT THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE...WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS WARM FRONT WILL
BE IN THE AREA WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THAT PERIOD. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ARE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE NAM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT AGAIN CLOUDS AND WARM FRONTAL PLACEMENT WILL BE THE
KEY. THINGS DRY UP AFTER SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO
CLIMB ONCE AGAIN.

BRAZZELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE      45  70  51  77 /  10   0   0  10
SAN ANGELO   49  74  53  80 /  10  10   0  10
JUNCTION     54  75  53  79 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

27/27

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
420 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

TXZ139-140-252215-
COLEMAN TX-BROWN TX-
420 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR COLEMAN
AND BROWN COUNTIES...

AT 417 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 5 MILES WEST OF COLEMAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ECHO BY 440 PM CDT
  BURKETT BY 455 PM CDT
  CROSS CUT BY 510 PM CDT
  US-183 NEAR THE BROWN-EASTLAND COUNTY LINE...LAKE BROWNWOOD NEAR
  BYRDS STORE AND MAY BY 515 PM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER ACTIONS SHOULD
A WARNING BE ISSUED.