Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS San Angelo, TX

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
317 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-202030-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
317 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTH OF DEL RIO TO
TEMPLE AND EASTWARD TOWARDS LONGVIEW. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGEST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
SOUTH OF I-10 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT
PUSHING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED
WITH ONLY HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE THREATS. THE ACTIVITY
MAY AFFECT THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND EARLY IN THE NIGHT
WITH SOME ACTIVITY POSSIBLE PUSHING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH DURING THE DAY AS A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM NEW MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WILL INCREASE ALLOWING FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KTS OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION. A DRYLINE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SURGE EAST
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES NORTH.
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ASSUMING
ENOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE FRONT...STRONG INSTABILITY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN STRONG
SHEAR AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS. THERE EXISTS A SMALL THREAT FOR TORNADOES IF ANY
SUPERCELLS DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG OR ACROSS THE WARM FRONT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS DUE TO
HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURNS TO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-10. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

10