Severe Thunderstorm Warning 332, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1120 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2006

.AVIATION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH
EMBEDDED SMALLER SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...TO CONTINUE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 950 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2006)

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE SENT TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW MORE DEGREES
TONIGHT. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 834 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2006)

UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES AND POP GRIDS
TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP/WX GRIDS TO LATEST TRENDS WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. EXPECT MAINLY THE
WESTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA TO BE AFFECTED TONIGHT BY ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY AS IT APPEARS IT WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT WITH
A 250MB JET STREAK OF 100+ KTS MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN AZ/WESTERN NM. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF MOST OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...ANY
FARTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MEAN A DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST
OF OUR CWA WILL GET ITS ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...PUTTING AN END TO
PRECIPITATION.

HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO CWA WIDE AS THE
FRONT HAS MOVED TO A LINE FROM NEAR THE I10 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN
CROCKETT COUNTY...TO NEAR BROWNWOOD THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES AT
SWEETWATER WERE ALREADY AT OR BELOW THEIR LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...SO JUST LOWERED A FEW DEGREES THERE SINCE CLOUDCOVER
WILL HINDER MORE DECREASES IN THE TEMPERATURE. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SOON. 20

SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE      55  76  53  75 /  60  60  10   0
SAN ANGELO   61  77  56  79 /  50  60  10   0
JUNCTION     67  83  57  83 /  50  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

15/99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
249 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2006

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-102000-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
249 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COMBINATION OF A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ONE OR TWO OF THESE
STORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AUTUMN WILL ARRIVE IN WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY AND
LOW FRIDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

07