Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
609 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TERMINALS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006)

UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HEADLINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 132 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006)

SHORT TERM...
ALL KINDS OF POSSIBILITIES FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THREE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY...DRYLINE LOCATED NEAR A KINK-KFST LINE AND
DEWPOINT GRADIENT/WEAK WARM FRONT LOCATED ALONG I-10. ALSO...UPPER
LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS IN FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION. THE 17Z LAPS DATA
INDICATES SBCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWFA AND CINH VALUES OF 80 TO 100 OVER SAN SABA AND MASON
COUNTIES. SHOULD SEE SCT STORMS FIRE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
AFTER 20Z. WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD SEE A
FEW SUPERCELLS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IF THE STORMS CAN INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARIES AND GENERATE LOW LEVEL HELICITY. LOOKS LIKE AN MCS WILL
DEVELOP BY 05/03Z AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
ALSO...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...
A LITTLE BREAK FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SAME SETUP FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL BE PRESENT ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SO STORMS
WILL FIRE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON NEAR LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES...ESPECIALLY
THE THURSDAY NIGHT MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR
I-10. SEVERE WEATHER IS A GOOD BET AGAIN ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWFA. CHC POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF AREA ON SATURDAY...THEN MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD...RESULTING IN MID LEVEL CAPPING.
ALSO...ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF COOL AIR MOVING SOUTH FOR NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BROWN...COKE...COLEMAN...CONCHO...CROCKETT...IRION...
KIMBLE...MASON...MCCULLOCH...MENARD...NOLAN...RUNNELS...SAN
SABA...SCHLEICHER...STERLING...SUTTON...AND TOM GREEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE      57  72  56  74 /  50  50  40  20
SAN ANGELO   61  84  59  80 /  50  50  50  20
JUNCTION     65  86  61  83 /  50  50  60  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BROWN...COKE...COLEMAN...CONCHO...CROCKETT...IRION...
KIMBLE...MASON...MCCULLOCH...MENARD...RUNNELS...SAN SABA...
SCHLEICHER...STERLING...SUTTON...AND TOM GREEN.

&&

15/15/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
228 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-051930-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
228 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY FORM ALONG A PREEXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG
THE COLORADO RIVER. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM NEAR THE DRYLINE
OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS PECOS...AND DRIFT INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WILL BE GREATEST FOLLOWING SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SIMILAR METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY...THOUGH
WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOST COMMON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINING FROM TONIGHT/S THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL
WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE TORNADO
THREAT MAY BE INCREASED ON FRIDAY...DUE TO INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC
WIND SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

14/21

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
552 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     TORNADO          3 N VICK                31.38N 100.09W
05/04/2006                   CONCHO             TX   STORM CHASER

            BRIEF LANDSPOUT

&&

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
605 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

TXZ139-140-042330-
COLEMAN TX-BROWN TX-
605 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR COLEMAN
AND WESTERN BROWN COUNTIES...

AT 603 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 6 MILES EAST OF GOULDBUSK...OR ABOUT 12
MILES SOUTH OF SANTA ANNA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM WILL
PRODUCE HAIL UP TO HALF INCH DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TRICKHAM BY 625 PM CDT
  BROOKESMITH...BANGS AND US-67 NEAR THE COLEMAN-BROWN COUNTY LINE BY
  630 PM CDT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.