Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006)

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RECENTLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH COVERS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TX UNTIL 11 PM CDT. AN
EXTREME INSTABILITY AXIS IS ALIGNED NORTH-SOUTH FROM WEST CENTRAL
TX TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPES APPROACHING
AND EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG. DRYLINE WAS MIXING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
WEST TX AND WAS NEARING A LUBBOCK TO MIDLAND LINE. BROKEN LINE OF
CUMULUS QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF CAPROCK. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING EAST ACROSS
NM/TX STATE LINE. AS THIS CONTINUES EAST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
LIKE TRACK EAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY...WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND
INTO CROCKETT COUNTY. CARRYING POPS TONIGHT FOR NORTHWEST HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TX. LOW LEVEL JET SETUP MAY SUSTAIN STORMS WELL INTO
THE NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY STRONG INSTABILITY IS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. CAP WILL BE PRESENT
BUT COULD BE BROKEN WITH LIFT ALONG ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM CONVECTION THIS EVENING. DRYLINE COULD MIX EAST INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES AS WELL. CARRYING A 20-30 POP FOR NORTHWEST HALF
OF WEST CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

WITH AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF STATES... THE 12Z GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE BIG
COUNTRY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRYLINE MIXES EAST WITH DRYLINE/FRONT
INTERSECTION SETTING UP INTO WEST CENTRAL TX. IN ADDITION...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND TX FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND SHEAR
ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX AND
NOT PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. MOVEMENT OF FRONT
WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCED/MODULATED BY LOCATION AND EXTENT OF
CONVECTION. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL OVER AN INCH ALONG
WITH A MOIST AXIS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SETUP. GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH POPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND
THESE WILL LIKELY NEED FURTHER BOOSTING IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SCENARIO.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO TX AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD.
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FORSEEN THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE      70  92  69  88 /  40  20  20  30
SAN ANGELO   69  92  69  93 /  30  20  20  20
JUNCTION     69  91  69  93 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 11 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BROWN...CALLAHAN...COKE...COLEMAN...FISHER...HASKELL...JONES...
NOLAN...RUNNELS...SHACKELFORD...TAYLOR...AND THROCKMORTON.

&&

15/99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
219 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-031930-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
219 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND A SOUTHWESTWARD
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A JUNCTION TO
SAN ANGELO TO STERLING CITY LINE. WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY QUICKLY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS...PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT REMAIN ALONG
PREEXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WEST TEXAS AND NEAR THE DRYLINE
OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN. A FEW STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NEAR THE DRYLINE AND AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST OF A JUNCTION TO SAN
ANGELO TO STERLING CITY LINE.

14

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