Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
250 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THEY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
FOLLOW THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. SINCE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE SINKING SOUTH...WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS
THIS EVENING OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS...ACROSS TOLEDO BEND INTO
NORTHCENTRAL LA. HIGHEST QFP IN THIS AREA ALSO. BOUNDARY SHOULD
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ON WEDNESDAY...SO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN WHERE TO
PLACE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF. HOWEVER WILL PLACE LOWEST POPS IN
NORTHEAST ZONES...WHERE GFS BRINGS IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FROM
WEAK SURFACE HIGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN...WITH GFS AND ETA STILL INSISTING
ON HIGH CHANCE POPS WHILE THE OLD NGM TRENDS BACK TO NORMAL
ISOLATED SUMMER TIME CONVECTION. WITH THE WEAKENED UPPER RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER TEXAS...DO NOT SEE ANY REASON AT THIS TIME TO
GO HIGHER THAN 20 AND 30 POPS. WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TREND TEMPS UP...
AS LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

ON FRIDAY...GFS BEGINS DIGGING SIGNIFICANT TROF SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WEST COAST WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PLACES THE UPPER RIDGE BACK WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR MOST OF THE SUMMER...
SO NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT MUCH RAIN FOR THIS AREA. SINCE RIDGE WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD HOLD IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD
FROM THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TSRA HAVE CONTINUED TO EVOLVE INTO AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER BETWEEN GGG AND IER. THESE STORMS WILL PROPAGATE
TO THE SOUTHWEST IMPACTING GGG...TYR AND LFK THROUGH 00Z. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THESE STORMS WILL POTENTIALLY BRING A WIND GUST IN
THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE TO THOSE SITES. HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
FOG LATER TONITE FOR THE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL THIS
AFTN. VSBYS AND CEILING MAY BE SLOW TO RISE IN THE MORNING AT THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  94  72  94 /  30  30  20  30
MLU  72  93  68  95 /  30  30  20  30
DEQ  71  92  70  92 /  30  40  20  20
TXK  73  94  71  94 /  30  30  20  30
ELD  71  93  68  94 /  30  30  20  20
TYR  75  97  75  97 /  30  30  20  30
GGG  75  95  72  96 /  30  30  20  30
LFK  73  97  72  95 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

14/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2006

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-231057-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED. IN GENERAL...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FREQUENT AND DEADLY LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH...AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE...
BUT MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ISOLATED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

VII