Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2006

.UPDATE...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW COLD FRONT IS STILL IN CENTRAL OK AT
15Z...W/OVERCAST SKIES AHEAD OF IT.  12Z KSHV SOUNDING SHOWS AS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...W/EMBEDDED -TSRA JUST SW OF
KTYR AND STARTING TO FIRE ELSEWHERE.  WILL UPDATE TO MENTION
THIS...AND ADJUST GRIDS TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 442 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2006)

DISCUSSION...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF I30 THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AS AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
TRY TO SQUEEZE SOME PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AIRMASS...BUT LIGHT
RAIN AND SHOWERS MAY BE ALL THAT IS GENERATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY. MODELS DO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AROUND WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS MORNING...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF
THIS HAPPENS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OBSERVED
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE THINKS CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD HOLD MAX TEMPS
DOWN WITH APPROACHING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO MORE THAN A
TEN DEGREE WARM UP HAS BEEN FORECASTED FOR TODAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES MONDAY PUTTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST...OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS ON TAP THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

ELEVEN

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

17/44

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