Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
348 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST AR INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTION
ALREADY RE-FIRING ALONG BOUNDARY...SO LOOKS LIKE A BUSY DAY
ACROSS THE CWA UNTIL UPPER LEVEL TROF FINALLY PICKS UP FRONT AND
MOVES IT EAST OF AREA BY THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL CAP WHICH IS IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF CWA AHEAD OF 85H TROF WILL BE PUSHED EAST IN
ADVANCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. THUS WILL CARRY MENTION OF SEVERE...
FOR ALL ZONES...BUT NORTHWEST WILL EXPERIENCE THE SEVERE WEATHER
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. NAM HANDLES
SLOWER MOVEMENT BETTER IN SHORT TERM...THEN WAS ABLE TO MESS THE
NAM AND GFS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS LOOKS OK FROM THURSDAY
FORWARD. IN THE EXTENDED...NEXT FRONT WHICH WAS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE IT MAY CROSS AREA SATURDAY. THUS THE
CONSISTENCY THE GFS HAD FOR A FEW RUNS HAS BEEN BROKEN. IT ALSO
NOW DOWNPLAYS CONVECTION...KEEPING IT NORTHEAST OF AREA. WILL NOT
TAKE THE PRECIP OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME...JUST MOVED IT
FORWARD 24 HRS. NORTHWEST FLOW THIS TIME YEAR DOES NOT REQUIRE A
VERY DEEP SHORT WAVE TO GET CONVECTION INITIATED.

AFTER TODAY...SEASONALLY MILD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  55  79  51 /  40  10   0   0
MLU  86  53  78  50 /  60  30   0   0
DEQ  75  50  72  43 /  50  10   0   0
TXK  76  53  76  50 /  40  10   0   0
ELD  83  52  78  49 /  50  20   0   0
TYR  84  53  76  51 /  30  10   0   0
GGG  84  53  78  50 /  30  10   0   0
LFK  89  56  81  52 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-101100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OCCURRING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY EAST OF
THE COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO NORTH LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS. STORMS
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE WEEKEND FROM
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MID DAY ON SUNDAY WITH A STORM COMPLEX
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE HIGH AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

06

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