High Wind Watch 7, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PST TUE DEC 26 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND LIKELY
A PERIOD OF RAIN TO MOST AREAS FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE COAST. THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND VERY STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS BY THURSDAY. A COOLING
TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WARMER WEATHER WILL OCCUR
BY NEXT WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

EQUIPMENT OUTAGES...KNXK WSR-88D UNAVAILABLE UNTIL 1500 PST/2300 UTC
TODAY. KSOX WSR 88D AWAITING PARTS - ETR 12/28/2006 2200 UTC.

TODAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR
MASS IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS HOWEVER WILL BE CRITICALLY DRY AND  OVER
THE FOOTHILLS...MOUNTAINS...AND DESERTS SEVERAL HOURS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 10 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED. ABOVE 15000 FEET THE AIR
MASS IS NEARING SATURATION. BELOW 1000 FEET MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING...AND THERE COULD BE DENSE FOG TONIGHT OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND LOWER INLAND VALLEYS... ALTHOUGH THE CAPPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE ERODING AFTER 0100 PST AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. THE STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. ONLY CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO CURRENT
FORECAST WILL BE TO MOVE UP START TIME OF HIGH WIND WATCH TO 1000
PST/1800 UTC WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WIND ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS TO BEGIN
EVEN EARLIER...AROUND 0400 PST FOR THE SAME AREA...AND WIND
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 0700 AND 1000 PST WEDNESDAY.  LIKELY BE UNDER A
WIND ADVISORY DURING OR EVEN BEFORE THE SAME TIME PERIOD. MODELS
STILL DIFFER IN AMOUNTS/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE GFS
WETTER AND PREFERRED OVER NAM12...NEVERTHELESS BOTH MODELS ARE
BACKING OFF ON THE PRECIPITATION THREAT AND THIS IS CONSIDERED
INCORRECT. FOR NOW THE CURRENT QPF AND POP FORECASTS LOOK GOOD.
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM OCCLUDED  WARM
FRONT. MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED ALONG COLD FRONT MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE RAINFALL AND LIGHT SNOW IN POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND FLOW
TRANSITIONS QUICKLY TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY. AM CONTEMPLATING ADDING A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE COLD
SANTA AN WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW FRIDAY. NAM SHOWS SUPPORT FOR
OFFSHORE WINDS WEAKENING FRIDAY MORNING...DIURNALLY SIMILAR TO THE
LAST EVENT. THIS WOULD FAVOR WINDS OF ADVISORY RATHER THAN WARNING
STRENGTH FRIDAY MORNING. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE DETAILS WITH THE MODELS.
HOWEVER...MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...THIS WOULD BRING
FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AT
TIMES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AT MOST AREA AIRPORTS WITH
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS ABOVE FL120 AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES. LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. BROKEN CLOUD
LAYERS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 FEET MSL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE NW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WED
MORNING AND INCREASE THROUGH AFTERNOON. IT WILL DECREASE THU AND
FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING WITH
RAIN SPREADING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP BY WED AFTERNOON WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE
WED NIGHT. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
HAZARDOUS EVENT.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS AND SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR PZZ750-PZZ775.

&&

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR
AVIATION/MARINE...HORTON

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO

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