Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS San Diego, CA

000 
WGUS76 KSGX 222027
FFSSGX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
125 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006
 
CAC071-222100-
SAN BERNARDINO CA-
125 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM PDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...

AT 120 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED 
AREA. HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AN HOUR 
WERE OCCURRING ABOUT 4 MILES NORTH OF GREEN VALLEY LAKE. THE HEAVY 
RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2 PM. RUNOFF MAY FLOW INTO 
LUCERNE VALLEY AND HESPERIA AND CAUSE FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MAY EFFECT THE MILLARD AND SAWTOOTH BURN 
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3423 11705 3429 11691 3439 11704 3444 11718
      3436 11724

$$

ECC

000 
WGUS76 KSGX 222055
FFSSGX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
155 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

CAC071-222103-
SAN BERNARDINO CA-
155 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY...

WIDE SPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS DECREASED. LOCALLY HEAVY BRIEF RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. 


LAT...LON 3423 11705 3429 11691 3439 11704 3444 11718
      3436 11724

$$

ECC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

.SYNOPSIS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY TODAY...AND AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FOR INTERIOR AREAS. MONSOON FLOW
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND SOME
STORMS COULD MOVE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE WEATHER WILL TURN A
LITTLE COOLER NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEAKENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES.

MORNING TEMPS WERE MUCH HIGHER HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SOME 10 TO
15 DEGREES HIGHER IN SOME SPOTS. MANY RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS WERE
BROKEN THIS MORNING...THE 93 AT PALM SPRINGS OBLITERATED THE OLD
RECORD OF 86 IN 1931. LINDBERGH FIELD HAD A LOW OF 74...BREAKING THE
RECORD OF 72 SET IN 1984. MANY OTHER REPORTING STATIONS SET
RECORDS...SEE LAXRERSGX FOR THE FULL LIST.

THE WARM JULY SUN AND TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS COUPLED WITH
THE VERY WARM START TO THE DAY WILL SEND TEMPS SOARING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY. AT 9 AM...RNM WAS ALREADY 98
DEGREES. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING LOOKS GOOD...BUT WILL UPDATE THE
ZONES TO ADD THE SAN DIEGO INLAND VALLEYS TO THE WARNING.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

THE RUC MODEL SHOWED A 40 KT 500 MB SPEED
MAX OVER NORTHERN BAJA...PLACING SOUTHERN CAL IN A FAVORABLE RRJ
QUADRANT. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WAS MOVING WESTWARD AND OUT TO
SEA EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE PW ON THE 12Z NKX SOUNDING WAS A WHOPPING 1.88 INCHES. EVEN WITH
THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...MORE STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG ANY
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS DUE TO THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND HOT WEATHER.  ALSO...THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CARRY SOME STORMS W OF THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL BE ALSO
BE HOT AND HUMID WITH MORE CONVECTION LIKELY.

THE CANCUN MONSOON SHOWS NO SIGNS OF LETTING UP THROUGH NEXT WEEK
AS GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS
OLD MEXICO AND INTO ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CAL. THE MASSIVE UPPER HIGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND THAT WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER NEXT WEEK. BUT THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS WHICH PASSED OVER SRN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORN WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST AND DECREASING. A MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CUMULUS/TOWERING CU AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTN.
EXPECT BASES AROUND 7000 FT AND TOPS TO FL400. T-STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG UP AND DOWNDRAFTS...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
HAIL. A FEW STORM CELLS MIGHT DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND INLAND VALLEYS. THE THREAT OF STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER 02Z.

OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS THE
COASTAL AND INLAND VALLEY SECTIONS TODAY. NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST
LOW CLOUDS WERE NEARLY ABSENT EARLY THIS MORN AND WILL BE PATCHY AT
BEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. A COASTAL EDDY MAY HELP TO
INCREASE THE STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

DENSITY ALTITUDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TO VERY HIGH AT THE
AIRPORTS IN THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FURTHER INLAND...AS A RESULT OF
THE HOT WEATHER.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR THE INLAND
VALLEYS...DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS BELOW 5000 FT. SEE LAXNPWSGX.

&&

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION...LAVIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1150 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

CAZ042-043-048-050-055-056-057-058-060-061-062-222300-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
1150 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR DANGEROUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES. MANY
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE BROKEN TODAY. SEE LAXNPWSGX FOR DETAILS.

MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCAL FLASH
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A MODERATE
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL RATING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MODERATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL RATING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
SOME STORMS MAY DRIFT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SKYWARN WEATHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION
IS NOT REQUESTED FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ATKIN/MOEDE