Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
549 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION.

WAT VAP IMAGERY AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS ORIENTED FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE
RIDING THIS SHEAR AXIS AND SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM
EXTREME NE OK/NW TX THROUGH SPRINGFIELD AND OSAGE BEACH AND POINTS
TO THE EAST. THE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND
ANOTHER CONVECTION WATCH MAY BE NEEDED PAST THE 8PM EXPIRATION.

GAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING)...

SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA ACROSS IOWA AND INTO NW
MO AND SE KS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING
WHICH IS ALLOWING THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. 12Z KSGF SOUNDING DID SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM 850-650MB...WHICH WILL
CREATE A MODERATELY STRONG CAP THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONVECTION CAN INITIATE. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE THIS AFTERNOON LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS TO BEGIN
TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SOME. DESPITE THE LESS THAN STELLAR
CONVERGENCE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WHICH COULD ACT TO ENHANCE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE COULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO BREAK THE CAP.

IF THE CAP DOES INDEED BREAK...THEN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS NOT PROGGED TO BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE AS SURFACE WINDS VEER AROUND TO SSW/SW...WHICH COMBINED
WITH ONLY MODERATELY FAVORABLE LCLS/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS MEANS THE
THREAT OF TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE NOT ZERO IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH EITHER. IF ANY SUPERCELL CAN SUSTAIN A
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIANT RIGHTWARD MOTION...THEN THAT WOULD ENHANCE SR
INFLOW AND THE SUBSEQUENT TORNADO THREAT. UPDATED HWO HAS BEEN
ISSUED.

IZZI/FOSTER

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH EXTENDED)...

THE LEAD IMPULSE THAT BRINGS US CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OUR CWA WILL BE WELL WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR WHICH SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
INSTABILITY BUT SHOULD BE MODERATELY CAPPED OFF BY ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER ADVECTING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. CURRENTLY APPEARS AS THOUGH
FORCING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
AND ALLOW FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER
EASTERN KANSAS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION WITH
RESPECT THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE CELLS
INITIALLY...WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR CONVECTION POSSIBLE AS
CONVECTION MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED
TO SLOWLY FILL DURING THE DAY WITH SURFACE FLOW VEERING AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL LESSEN THE 0-1KM SHEAR. NONETHELESS...
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ONLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY SO LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR APPEARS AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER POTENTIAL NEGATIVE FACTOR IS THE LARGE
TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WHICH COULD BE APPROACHING 20F BY
AFTERNOON AS HIGHS SOAR INTO THE LOWER 80S. GIVEN THE LARGE T/TD
SPREADS AND THE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN STELLAR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAVE
TONED DOWN THE TORNADO WORDING A BIT. DRYLINE AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MARCH STEADILY EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAYS SYSTEM. UPPER FLOW THEN PROGGED TO FLATTEN
OUT AND BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY
MINOR IMPULSES RIPPLING QUICKLY THROUGH THE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH NO BIG COOL DOWNS IN SITE.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF PACKAGE CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CONTINUING CONVECTION ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS TO SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. TSRA CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP OVER NE OK AND RAPIDLY MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE AXIS OF THIS CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED JUST TO THE
EAST OF KJLN AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KJLN SHOULD
REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING. HAVE
EXTENDED DURATION OF TSRA AT KSGF THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING AS
CELLS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN AT VFR...WITH IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. THE AXIS OF PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY. HAVE RAMPED
UP WIND SPEEDS AFTER 15Z SUNDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS/CB AFTER 22Z...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE TSRA
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE JUST AFTER THE VALID TAF TIME.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
130 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-121900-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
130 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONGEST MAY PRODUCE:
    HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
    VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
    AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM ALONG AND
  EAST OF AN OSCEOLA TO JOPLIN LINE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
  EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

  SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
  DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE STRETCHING ACROSS
  FAR WESTERN MISSOURI. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT
  WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
  DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
  LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
  DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
  COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO
  WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE SUNDAY
  AFTERNOON...MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
  SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE PRESENT
  TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
  SEVERAL SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
  THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
  WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER AND DAMAGING
  WINDS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FORECAST...THERE
  WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WINDS IN
  THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CURRENTLY DO NOT APPEAR AS
  THOUGH THEY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
  OUTLOOK AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

  SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED
  AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A
  SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

IZZI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

MOZ082-092-120030-
TEXAS-WRIGHT-
541 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR TEXAS AND WRIGHT COUNTIES UNTIL 630
PM CST...

AT 537 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NORWOOD...OR 11 MILES WEST OF MOUNTAIN
GROVE...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

RUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
542 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW TANEYVILLE         36.73N 93.05W
03/11/2006                   TANEY              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF ROOF AND TREES DOWNED

&&

SCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
543 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             1 NE BRANSON            36.65N 93.21W
03/11/2006  E2.50 INCH       TANEY              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED 70 MPH WINDS.

&&

SCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     HAIL             NORWOOD                 37.11N 92.41W
03/11/2006  M1.00 INCH       WRIGHT             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JSCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             ANDERSON                36.65N 94.44W
03/11/2006  M1.75 INCH       MCDONALD           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL ALSO IN PINEVILLE AND GOODMAN

&&

JSCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             8 W VANZANT             36.97N 92.45W
03/11/2006  M0.75 INCH       DOUGLAS            MO   PUBLIC

&&

JSCHULTZ