Severe Thunderstorm Warning 364, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
115 AM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE MCS COMPLEX WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH REGIONAL RADAR
INDICATING A MESOSCALE CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF KANSAS CITY AS OF 1
AM. LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO IGNITE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS. CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH LATEST RUC...CONTINUES TO SHOW MID LEVEL DRY
LAYER/STABLE LAYER ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION NORTH OF
I-44 DURING THE NEXT 6/12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH WILL SEE HOW RADAR TRENDS
LOOK IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS TO HAVE CHANCE
POPS SOUTH OF I-44 WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS NORTH OF I-44.

AFTER THIS MORNING MY ATTENTION TURNS TO THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD
A VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LOW BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW BY
MONDAY ACROSS THE MID WEST. BOTH THE WRF/GFS ARE SHOWING A VERY
SYNOPTIC TYPE REGIME DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR AN EARLY
FALL STORM SYSTEM. EVEN SOME OF THE MOISTURE FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING A VERY DYNAMIC WARM/COLD CONVEYER BELT ACROSS
NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN IOWA BY MONDAY. DUE TO
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY STALL OR EVEN RETREAT
NORTHWARD AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
THEREFORE...IT SEEMS THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
HAPPEN AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

CURRENT FORECAST WITH LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI WITH LOW PROBABILITIES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI
SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAY HAVOC DUE TO RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ALSO SEEMS REASONABLE DUE TO CURRENT THICKNESS
VALUES.

DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH AFTER MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME
PERIOD...BUT DUE TO THIS SYSTEM EXPECTING TO DEVELOP...HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES
EXPECTED. JLT

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 0600 UTC TAFS...FIRST LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FELL APART IN THE STABLE AIR. THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS WILL MISS BOTH AIRFIELDS...BUT THERE IS MORE TO COME LATER
THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE NEXT COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IN KANSAS
SHOULD REACH JOPLIN BY 12Z AND SPRINGFIELD BY 14Z. JUST WENT VCTS IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME AS UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER THIS LINE WILL
MEET THE SAME FATE AS THIS FIRST ONE DID.

GCC

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
940 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-270245-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
940 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
  POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
  THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF
  HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE OSAGE PLAINS AND OZARKS
  REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION
  OF THE FRONT AND ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
  PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
  PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THIS WEEKEND. STRONG TO SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
  MONDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
  HAZARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB