Severe Thunderstorm Warning 347, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 112203
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
502 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006

MOC161-112245-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0347.000000T0000Z-060811T2245Z/
PHELPS MO-
502 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL PHELPS COUNTY...

AT 500 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR DOOLITTLE...OR ABOUT 8 MILES WEST OF ROLLA. THIS STORM
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEWBURG
AND JEROME.

AT 455 PM THE PUBLIC REPORTED TORRENTIAL RAIN AND REALLY STRONG 
WINDS IN NEWBURG WITH THIS STORM. 

LAT...LON 3804 9191 3792 9204 3784 9187 3798 9178

$$

IZZI

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 112223
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
522 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006

MOC161-112232-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0347.000000T0000Z-060811T2245Z/
PHELPS MO-
522 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL PHELPS COUNTY...
IS CANCELLED...

WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH 
PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE 
THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PHELPS COUNTY THROUGH 
AT LEAST 6 PM...WITH THE STRONGER STORM PRODUCING WINDS TO 40 
MPH...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. 

LAT...LON 3804 9191 3792 9204 3784 9187 3798 9178

$$

IZZI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES TODAY IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOWS UP NICELY IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...PROFILERS...AND AVAILABLE AIRCRAFT DATA. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL MO...THE WRF DOES BREAK OUT SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MO OZARKS.
INSTABILITY...MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG...AND MOISTENING MID LAYERS WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAKE THIS PLAUSIBLE. HAVE
ADDED SOME SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS OVER THIS AREA FOR THIS EVENING.

IT SHOULD BE A QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO
OUR WEST IS STILL PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY.
HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER GFS MOS. I MAY PUT SOME
PATCHY FOG INTO THE GRIDS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...BUT
AM A LITTLE CONCERNED WHAT THE STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST MO MAY DO
TONIGHT. BELIEVE IT MAY MAKE A BIT OF A MOVE TO THE S-SW. HYDROLAPSE
RATES OFF THE PROGGED WRF SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE
THAN PATCHY WORDING. ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVED ABUNDANT RAINFALL
RECENTLY MAY SEE SOMEWHAT MORE FOG.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SUPPRESS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING THE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. HAVE BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE MORE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD THE UPPER
RIDGE BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WOULDNT BE SHOCKING
TO SEE SOME CONVECTION BEYOND TUESDAY IN THE EXTENDED DEPENDING ON
WHERE LOW LEVEL FEATURES/FRONTS SET UP...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE OFF WELL TO OUR NORTH-NORTHWEST. DSA

&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE INCLUDED A BROKEN DECK AROUND 4KFT AT KSGF.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO POP
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. IN ADDITION...A BAND OF BROKEN CLOUD
COVER AT 3KFT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.
EXPECT SKY CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT BOTH KSGF AND KJLN...BUT WILL
AMEND IF A LOWER BROKEN DECK DOES DRIFT INTO THE TERMINAL SITES.

SCHULTZ

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-121800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1258 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

IN COUNTIES EAST OF A OSCEOLA TO SPRINGFIELD TO BRANSON
LINE...WITH THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH 8 PM.

DISCUSSION:

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY...WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF NEAR 100 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA