Severe Thunderstorm Warning 317, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
615 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

...DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...

.DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 315 PM.
ANOTHER HOT DAY WAS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 100 DEGREES.
WATER VAPOR AND PROFILERS DEPICTED THAT THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINED
ANCHORED OVERHEAD. LOWER DEWPOINTS HAD MIXED DOWN ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WHILE MOISTURE WAS POOLING OVER THE EASTERN
OZARKS.

EXTREME CAPE IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG HAD DEVELOPED WITHIN THE MOIST
AXIS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD RAPIDLY DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS. ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WE WILL REMAIN UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. HIGHS
WILL AGAIN REACH THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS LOWER SOME IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO DEEP MIXING. HOWEVER HEAT INDICES WILL STILL CLIMB
TO NEAR OR ABOVE 105 ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RETREATING RIDGE. INITIAL IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO EASTERN
MISSOURI THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUPPORT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE EASTERN OZARKS
STAND TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE SLOWER WFF MODEL SOLUTION
WHICH SAGS THE FRONT INTO THE OZARKS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
AND AMPLE SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY INTO THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR 100 BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND EXTENT OF CLOUDINESS IN
QUESTION...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL NOT BE EXTENDED AT THIS
TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE
WEEKEND WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OUT EAST. THIS WILL
LEAVE OUR REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE OZARKS THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL
AFFECT THE KSGF-KSTL TWEB ROUTE OVERNIGHT. JLT

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO SALEM THROUGH THURSDAY.
HEAT ADVISORY FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INCLUDING WEST PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY.
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
851 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-210200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
851 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
70 TO 80 MPH...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF AN IBERIA TO FORT LEONARD WOOD...TO
HOUSTON...TO WEST PLAINS LINE THROUGH 1 AM.

DISCUSSION:

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
EVENING. AMPLE INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A VERY STRONG COLD POOL
DEVELOPING BEHIND THESE STORMS...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE ACROSS A PORTION OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN
REACHING 104 TO 110 DEGREES.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS EAST OF AN ELDON TO
WAYNESVILLE...TO WEST PLAINS LINE THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1027 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S SALEM               37.63N 91.54W
07/19/2006                   DENT               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE AND LIMBS DOWN IN TOWN AND SOUTH OF TOWN.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1039 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EMINENCE                37.15N 91.36W
07/19/2006                   SHANNON            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AT LEAST ONE TREE AND SEVERAL POWERLINES DOWN IN TOWN.
            TREE DOWN ON TOM AKERS RD.

&&

IZZI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1048 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N EMINENCE            37.18N 91.36W
07/19/2006                   SHANNON            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

1035 PM     TSTM WND GST     HOUSTON                 37.33N 91.96W
07/19/2006  E60 MPH          TEXAS              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWERLINES DOWN AS WELL RELAYED BY AMATEUR RADIO.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1109 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WILLOW SPRINGS          36.99N 91.97W
07/19/2006                   HOWELL             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL POWERLINES DOWN IN TOWN.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1117 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNTAIN GROVE          37.13N 92.26W
07/19/2006                   WRIGHT             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ON A HOME.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1121 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WINONA                  37.01N 91.32W
07/19/2006                   SHANNON            MO   PUBLIC

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN TOWN.

1115 PM     HAIL             WINONA                  37.01N 91.32W
07/19/2006  E0.75 INCH       SHANNON            MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH