Severe Thunderstorm Warning 290, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING
TO NEAR 2 INCHES...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A FAIRLY STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN EXTREME IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
WHERE LOCALLY FOUR TO SIX INCHES FELL IN THE HEAD WATERS OF THE
JACKS FORK RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHERN TEXAS COUNTY.

THE THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT ALONG THE 85H TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR
THE CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH
FLOODING POTENTIAL AND THE OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE 85H TROUGH AND
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT RELATES TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THIS MOST LIKELY PLACE OF HIGHEST RAINFALL AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR AS THE 85H TROUGH AND THERMAL
GRADIENT REMAINS IN TACK. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE BASED ON HPC GUIDANCE
AND LATEST RUC/RADAR TRENDS FOR THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE AREAL
AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BETWEEN
21-03Z. FLOODING CONCERNS WILL REMAIN WEAK DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE PAST YEAR.  HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF THE OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS DUE TO THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED.

LATER FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS/WRF AS BOTH HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...BUT HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A WETTER SCENARIO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE 85H TROUGH HOLDS NEAR THE REGION.
WILL NOT GET TO OVERWHELM ON PERCENTAGES...BUT 50/50 LOOKS GOOD SO
FAR WITH A SLOW DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TO CENTRAL MISSOURI
BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN LOW/MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL
BECOME WEAKER. LATEST GFS/WRF TRENDS ARE SHOWING A BROAD TROUGH AT
UPPER LEVELS (CENTRAL ROCKIES/UPPER MIDWEST) BY THE WEEK/WEEKEND.
HAVE ALREADY TRENDED FOR A MORE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED RANGE...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THIS
SCENARIO AND A BROAD UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO... JLT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION OF LONG TERM AT 1130 AM.

LONG TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OZARKS...WITH A TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE UPPER
RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. MEAN
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SHOWED THE HIGHEST THICKNESS VALUES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AREA LIKELY. REAL-TIME
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES AT THE 85H DONT INDICATE ANYTHING OUT OF THE
ORDINARY FOR (OZARKS/SOUTHEAST KANSAS) TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE
NORMAL MEANS. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND NO AIR MASS
REPLACEMENT FOR SURFACE CONDITIONS...BELIEVE HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
LOOK GOOD WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THE LOCAL EFFECTS...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST AND MOST HUMID FOR THIS SUMMER SO FAR. IN
ADDITION...70H WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS WHERE WEAK
CONVERGENCE MAY DEVELOP. JLT

&&

.AVIATION...

HAVE CONTINUED VICINITY THUNDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT SPRINGFIELD
AND JOPLIN AND CARRIED SOME TEMPO THUNDER THROUGH 20Z TO 21Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS
OVER SOUTHWEST MO. BASED ON OBSERVED CLOUD TRENDS...BROUGHT CEILINGS
BRIEFLY BELOW 2000 FEET AT SPRINGFIELD. WILL REMAIN MORE OPTIMISTIC
AT JOPLIN WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE GREATER.

WILL CARRY VICINITY THUNDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING UNTIL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MOVES ACROSS TAF SITES.
THEREAFTER WILL CARRY MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 12Z THROUGH 15-18Z.

MT

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
131 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-111845-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
131 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES
PER HOUR THAT WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE LOCALLY THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF
RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM FOR AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES
AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL CAUSE HEAT
INDICES TO APPROACH...OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WIND GUSTS...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOCAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND FLOODING REPORTS ARE ENCOURAGE FOR NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
147 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W HOUSTON             37.33N 91.99W
07/10/2006  E4.50 INCH       TEXAS              MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAINFALL SINCE 730 AM.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
237 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HOUSTON                 37.33N 91.96W
07/10/2006  M6.10 INCH       TEXAS              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RAINFALL SINCE 830 AM.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
248 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E CONWAY              37.50N 92.77W
07/10/2006                   LACLEDE            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY J IMPASSABLE DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GROVESPRING             37.40N 92.61W
07/10/2006  M4.00 INCH       WRIGHT             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
354 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PITTSBURG               37.41N 94.70W
07/10/2006                   CRAWFORD           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING ONGOING IN PITTSBURG WITH SOME ROADS NOW
            IMPASSABLE

&&

IZZI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
359 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OZARK                   37.02N 93.21W
07/10/2006                   CHRISTIAN          MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE FELL ON VEHICLE IN DOWNTOWN OZARK TRAPPING ONE
            PERSON. NO ONE WAS INJURED.

0135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OZARK                   37.02N 93.21W
07/10/2006                   CHRISTIAN          MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINE DOWN AT NINTH AND ROBERTSON STREET.

&&

GAEDE