Severe Thunderstorm Warning 266, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
354 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...

VERY INTERESTING ATMOSPHERIC SETUP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING.  AN ISOLATED AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
PERSISTED IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING DURING THE PRESENT TIME.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHAT EXACTLY HAS ANCHORED THESE STORMS IN
SUCH A SMALL CONFINED REGION.  THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI.  DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S RESIDE NORTH OF THE FRONT WHILE VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S ARE COMMON ON THE SOUTH SIDE.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STORMS DEVELOPED IN AN AREA OF BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS OPPOSED
TO LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  IN ADDITION...DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS KICKED IN...ALLOWING FOR A
MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS...AND ADDING FURTHER ENHANCEMENT OF THE
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI/EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS STORMS.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CONVECTION GOING ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOUR.  THE MAIN MCS WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA...AS IT GETS
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN A FEW HOURS...IT MAY CUT OFF THE GOOD
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE
REGENERATION OF CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON.  IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR
OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.  IF TEMPS CAN REACH
THE UPPER 80S...CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE AROUND 4000 J/KG
WITH LITTLE CAP.  THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE AREA ALONG WITH
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  IN ADDITION...REGIONAL RADARS SUGGEST
AN MCV MAY HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS KANSAS AS A RESULT OF THE OVERNIGHT
MCS.  IF ENOUGH HEATING DOES INDEED OCCUR...THEN THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION BY
AFTERNOON.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINITES OF CLOUD COVER AND BOUNDARY
LOCATIONS...ONLY GOING 20 TO 30 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HELD
ONTO SLIGHT POPS AREAWIDE FOR TONIGHT FOR ANY LINGERING STORMS...AND
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME ISOLATED WARM AIR ADVECTION STORMS AS THE
BOUNDARY FINALLY LIFTS NORTH.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM.  WITH 850 MB
TEMPS OVER 20 DEG C AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE HIGHS WILL
LIKELY WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.  THESE VALUES WILL
FLIRT WITH RECORDS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.  A GOOD CAP SHOULD KEEP
THE AREA DRY.  HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STORM WOULDNT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION OVER OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS...WHERE THE CAP WILL BE A BIT
WEAKER.

NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING EXTENDED GRIDS.

SAW

&&

.AVIATION...

SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR THE TAFS THIS MORNING REVOLVE AROUND
REGENERATIVE CONVECTION VERY NEAR THE JLN AERODROME. OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...THE AREA OF BEST CONVERGENCE HAS SLID CLOSE TO JLN. IN
ADDITION...AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE 12Z TIME FRAME. CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE EAST AND MAY
FLIRT WITH THE SGF AERODROME AFTER 12Z...HOWEVER THIS WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON HOW EXISTING CONVECTION MORPHS. AFTER THIS SPELL OF
CONVECTION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED (MID MORNING
INTO MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR ADDTL SHRA/TSRA
WILL AGAIN BE PREVALENT FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

GAGAN

&&

.CLIMATE

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 20 DEG C. HERE ARE THE CURRENT
RECORDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

                MAY 26      MAY 27    MAY 28

SPRINGFIELD    92/1953     88/1911    89/1911
JOPLIN         94/1953     89/1991    92/1983
WEST PLAINS    95/1953     90/1962    89/1962
ROLLA/VICHY    92/1953     90/1905    91/1962

MMT/LINDENBERG/SAW

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
741 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-261100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
741 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MAY PRODUCE:
    HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER.
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
    AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SCATTERED STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NEOSHO TO EMINENCE LINE...
  MAINLY THROUGH 10 PM.

  DISCUSSION:

  SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND
  AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY SEPARATING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
  FROM DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.  THIS BOUNDARY INTERACTED WITH
  EXTREME INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO PRODUCE THE
  SEVERE STORMS.

  THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO EXTREME
  SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MID EVENING
  HOURS...AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
  BALLS.

  AS THE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
  EVENING...STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
  AND MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OUT IN THE PLAINS TONIGHT
  AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
  LATE TONIGHT.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
  LIMITS BUT MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
  ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.  AFTER A DRY
  WEEKEND...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
  MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE MID TO LATE
  AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE MID EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
  MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1218 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1217 AM     HAIL             SHELL KNOB              36.63N 93.63W
05/26/2006  E0.88 INCH       BARRY              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 AM     HAIL             NEOSHO                  36.87N 94.37W
05/26/2006  E1.00 INCH       NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
101 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1259 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NEOSHO                  36.87N 94.37W
05/26/2006                   NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LOW LYING STREETS IN TOWN ARE BEGINNING TO FLOOD

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
225 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 AM     HAIL             GRANBY                  36.92N 94.25W
05/26/2006  E1.75 INCH       NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0141 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NEOSHO                  36.87N 94.37W
05/26/2006                   NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NEOSHO POLICE REPORTS FLASH FLOODING OVER A SIGNIFICANT
            PART OF THE CITY. SEVERAL ROADS ARE WATER COVERED...WITH
            IMMINENT CLOSURE EXPECTED. HIGHWAY 86 NEAR WOOD STREET IS
            NEARLY IMPASSABLE AND ROAD BLOCKS ARE EXPECTED. ONE WATER
            RESCUE HAS OCCURRED...A CAR WAS OVERTAKEN BY WATER.

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
340 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 AM     HAIL             GRANBY                  36.92N 94.25W
05/26/2006  E1.75 INCH       NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GAGAN