Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
237 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

.UPDATE...

18Z SGF SOUNDING CONFIRMS THE HIGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN OZARKS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH 5600 J/KG CAPES AND NO
CINS.  IF WE HAD A DECENT TRIGGERING MECHANISM SEVERE STORMS WOULD
HAVE NO TROUBLE DEVELOPING QUICKLY.  FAIRLY SHARP DEWPOINT GRADIENT
FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S TO THE
SOUTHERN MISSOURI OZARKS WHERE READINGS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.  HOWEVER...SOUTHWARD PUSH OF BOUNDARY LOOKS VERY LETHARGIC AT
THIS POINT WITH MINIMAL PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
WITHOUT ADDITIONAL FORCING PROBABLY ONLY LOOKING AT ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS.  IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
MAINLY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND EXPECTED.  CERTAINLY EXPECTING MORE
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY TO BE CONCENTRATED FURTHER EAST WHERE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE WILL HAVE MORE INTERACTION.

UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SOME CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS WELL EAST OF THE REGION AND RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN.  CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE BOUNDARY INTERACTION.  THIS
ACTIVITY COULD PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
TOWARD MORNING AND AFFECT THE WESTERN OZARKS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY COULD BE IMPACTED BY POSSIBLE
MCS REMNANTS AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.  HAVE CURRENTLY KEPT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN QUITE WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE AND 850 TEMPERATURES OF +20 TO +22 IMPACTING THE
CWA.  EXPECTING TO BE FAIRLY CAPPED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HAVE
KEPT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY APPROACH RECORDS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO THE WEST WITH
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE PLAINS.  KEPT LOW POPS GOING THROUGH THE
PERIOD MAINLY FOR POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY CONVECTION.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MODERATE CUMULUS FIELD WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN 1/4
TO 1/5 OF MO LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES OF A THUNDERSTORM AT EITHER TERMINAL SITE IS
LESS THAN 15% AND THEREFORE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS. IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP LARGE HAIL AND EXPLOSIVE UPDRAFTS TO AT LEAST 50K FEET CAN
BE EXPECTED GIVEN EXTREME INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES POSSIBLY INCREASING A BIT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
ENHANCES LIFT OVER THE FRONT. STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND EVEN IF IT DID DEVELOP COVERAGE
MAY NOT BE THAT GREAT SO ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN TAFS LATER TONIGHT
FOR NOW. BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
ONLY FEW/SCT HIGHER BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

IZZI

&&

.CLIMATE

UPPER RIDGE AND WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO NEAR RECORD
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND.  HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...

                MAY 26      MAY 27    MAY 28

SPRINGFIELD    92/1953     88/1911    89/1911
JOPLIN         94/1953     89/1991    92/1983
WEST PLAINS    95/1953     90/1962    89/1962
ROLLA/VICHY    92/1953     90/1905    91/1962

MMT/LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
446 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-261100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
446 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MAY PRODUCE:
    HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER.
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
    AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SCATTERED STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A JOPLIN TO SPRINGFIELD
  TO SALEM LINE THROUGH THE MID EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

  SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
  AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY SEPARATING DEW POINTS FROM THE
  MID 50S TO THE LOW 70S.  EXTREME INSTABILITY DEVELOPED OVER
  THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RECORD
  BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS.  THE
  DEW POINT GRADIENT WILL INTERACT WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY
  TO PRODUCE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE MID EVENING.

  THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE
  GIVEN THE VERY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.  LARGE HAIL
  AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OUT IN THE PLAINS TONIGHT
  AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
  LATE TONIGHT.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
  LIMITS BUT MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
  ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.  AFTER A DRY
  WEEKEND...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
  MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE MID TO LATE
  AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE MID EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
  MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG