Severe Thunderstorm Warning 234, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
158 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...

AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH WEAKENING INHIBITION IS SETTING UP
FROM SE KS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CONWAY AND NEODESHA PROFILERS SHOW 6KM WINDS OF
35-45KT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS LEADING TO 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
APPROACHING 35KT. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE THE STAGE
SEEMS TO BE SET FOR SEVERE MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION TO RAPIDLY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOOSELY
ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS WHICH WOULD ONLY MAGNIFY THE WIND/HAIL
POTENTIAL. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF I44
WHERE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD THE MOST TIME TO RECOVER...HOWEVER WITH
HOURS OF HEATING TO GO REMAINDER OF THE CWA STILL HAS TIME TO
DESTABILIZE.

CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PASSING TO OUR NORTH. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF IS
NOT IN ANY BIG HURRY TO MOVE SOUTHWARD SO MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD
STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO FALL
FAR INTO THE 60S.

WRF/NAM/GFS ALL HAVE SLOWED THE FRONTAL TIMING DOWN SOME MORE AND
HAS THE FRONT VERY NEAR THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MLCAPES
TO INCREASE TO 3000 J/KG OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
VECTORS PROGGED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 40KT...SO IF STORMS DEVELOP
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY GIVEN LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IF ANY CAP WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NEARLY STALLED OUT FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

WEAK FRONT/MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LIFT
EVER SO SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEST ASCENT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW LEVEL JET COULD ALLOW FOR SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEITHER SCENARIO
LOOKS OVERLY LIKELY AT THIS TIME BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE EXISTS GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO WARRANT AT LEAST
SCHC POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WHATS LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASING. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE
TOASTY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPS OVER 20C AND UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY CLIMB INTO THE 90S AREA WIDE
SATURDAY EVEN ON THE PLATEAU WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE OVER
WESTERN/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

COULD SEE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT AND 850MB TEMPS COOL SOME. THIS COOLING IS
MAINLY ADVERTISED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
COOLING. DID TREND TEMPS A BIT MORE TOWARD CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
REALLY WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THESE TEMPS NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SOME
EVENTUALLY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED LOOK PRETTY
PALTRY AND KEPT POPS NEAR/SLIGHT BELOW CLIMO (WHICH IS NEAR 20
PERCENT) THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...HAVE GONE ON CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINAL FORECAST LOCATIONS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  WITH FRONT STILL WELL BACK IN KANSAS WILL BE HARD
TO PINPOINT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON SO
HAVE GONE WITH VCTS IN CURRENT TAFS.  IN FACT WRF MODEL RUN SHOWING
NO QPF OVER MOST OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT AND MOS GUIDANCE REMAIN WELL
BELOW THE TEMPO COVERAGE GUIDELINES TO MENTION IN CURRENT TAFS.  SO
FOR NOW WILL KEEP REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD DRY AND VFR.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

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