Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
318 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS CONTINUES TO MOVE
EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH AN ARC OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED
CONVECTION (PER SPC MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS) OCCURRING ALONG ITS
LEADING EDGE. REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM BOURBON
COUNTY SE INTO LAWRENCE AND STONE COUNTY SHOWS UP QUITE NICELY IN
AWS OBSERVATIONS WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE ENHANCED CUMULUS FIELD
DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONVERGENCE AXIS. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
POOLING A BIT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S LEADINGS TO MLCAPES OF NEARLY 3000 J/KG
BASED OFF MODIFIED RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WHILE INSTABILITY
IS PLENTIFUL SHEAR IS PITIFUL WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW 15KT FROM THE
SURFACE TO 250MB. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE
AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING MAY POSE A BRIEF
LOCALIZED WIND/MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.

CONVECTION WILL BY AND LARGE BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET HOWEVER
WITH SOME CONVECTION STILL PRESENT NEAR THE MCV OVER KS ITS POSSIBLE
THAT THIS FEATURE MAY SUSTAIN ITSELF INTO THE NIGHT LEADING TO AT
LEAST SOME SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/ISO STORMS INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS IT TRANSLATES SLOWLY EASTWARD.

ASSUMING THIS MCV MAINTAINS ITS IDENTITY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WE
WILL END UP ON THE SUBSIDENT BACKSIDE OF THE VORT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. AT LEAST MIXED SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AND HAVE TRENDED
TEMPS A SMIDGE ABOVE THE WARMEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

VIGOROUS NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUESDAY AND INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE OZARKS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH FULL SUITE OF SHORT RANGE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NAM/GFS/WRF ALSO ALL
TIGHTEN THE HEIGHT GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR
NORTH AND LEAD TO FAIRLY MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW AND SOMEWHAT
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. ASSUMING NO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
LEFT OVER FROM ANY UNEXPECTED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING
WE SHOULD BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
DISTANCE SET UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WED NIGHT AND HAVE HIT THIS IN THE HWO A BIT.

NAM/GFS BOTH BLAST THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WRF HANGS THE FRONT UP OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
WOULD SUGGEST A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IN LATER
RUNS BUT ONLY KEPT SOME SCHC POPS GOING JUST IN CASE THE WRF PANS
OUT.

IN THE EXTENDED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD
BREAKING) LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK
PRETTY LOW DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS BENEATH
THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION GENERALLY SUPPRESSED. RIDGE
MAY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THAT IS TEETERING ON
THE EDGE OF PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE SO ONLY NUDGED POPS A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO AND TEMPS A BIT COOLER TOWARD CLIMO.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT BOTH KJLN AND KSGF THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ALSO
LINGER NEAR THE TERMINALS THROUGH 02-03Z. WINDS SHOULD GO CALM
TONIGHT...AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. GIVEN THE ALREADY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TONIGHT...FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE TAKEN KSGF INTO MVFR
FOR VISIBILITY AFTER 06Z...BUT KEEPING KJLN IN VFR AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FOG WILL MOST LIKELY BE A PLATEAU
EFFECT...BUT VISIBILITIES AT KJLN WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY AND VFR FOR TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 20KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCHULTZ

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
231 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MANES                   37.38N 92.37W
05/22/2006                   WRIGHT             MO   PUBLIC

            VERY LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWNED AND OUTBUILDING DAMAGED.

&&

SRUNNELS