Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
626 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE...

.UPDATE...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AN INTENSE THUNDERSTORM WAS TRACKING
ACROSS OZARK INTO HOWELL COUNTIES AT 625 PM. BACKGROUND HELICITIES
WERE AROUND 100 M2/S2 BUT HAVE TRENDED UPWARD THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI APPEARS LOW IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AT THE VERY LEAST...
AMPLE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR IS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS
WITH POTENTIAL OF VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND WET GROUND CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL SAG
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WITH A TEMPORARY BREAK
FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE SWEEPS INTO THE REGION.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS HAS DRIFTED
SOUTHWARD AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEOSHO TO NIXA TO HOUSTON.
EARLIER BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ALLOWED THE AREA TO HEAT INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RECOVERING INTO THE MID 60S
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. CAPPING INVERSION IS GONE AND NOW WE ARE
PRETTY MUCH IN A WAIT AND SEE WHERE IT GOES MODE. LATEST RADAR SHOWS
A FEW ECHOES BUBBLING OVER EASTERN NEWTON COUNTY SO WE WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THIS AREA CLOSELY.

MAIN COLD FRONT HAS MADE SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...AND EXTENDS
ROUGHLY FROM COLUMBIA TO CHANUTE. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH DISTURBED UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
REMAINS WELL ABOVE AN INCH...AND WITH THE ALREADY HEAVY RAINFALL
RECEIVED EARLIER TODAY AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE CUTTING OFF AND STALLING OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR GLANCING LIGHT PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI IF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BECOMES BROAD ENOUGH.
HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
AS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ADVECTS A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION.

IN THE EXTENDED....MAINTAINED LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS WESTWARD
INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AS UPPER LOW HELPS SPREAD
CANADIAN AIR INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TERRY
&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...STORMS FORMING ALONG BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
KSGF AND KJLN TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.  WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH
CONVECTION NOW OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE AREA.  EXPECT MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS AS CONVECTION AND TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.  CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 18Z
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT.

GAEDE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS HAVE HAD NEARLY 150-200% ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL SINCE APRIL 25TH. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...A FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OVERNIGHT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
RECENTLY HAVE DECREASE TO LESS THAN ONE INCH (HOURLY VALUES) FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WITH 3/6 HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 TO 3.0 INCHES. WITH THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FLOODING IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. EVEN
RIVER FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM IF WE GET AMOUNTS EXCEEDING
THREE INCHES OVERNIGHT. JLT

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...AREAS SOUTH OF A NEVADA TO OSAGE BEACH TO VIENNA LINE FROM 6 PM
TO 6 AM.
KS...CHEROKEE AND CRAWFORD COUNTY FROM 6 PM TO 6 AM.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-101100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
100 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING...
   LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.
   DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
   ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   TORRENTIAL RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THE ENTIRE OZARKS REGION AFTER 2 PM.

  DISCUSSION:

  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM FORT LEONARD WOOD TO JUST
  NORTH OF JOPLIN WILL BE FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON.
  INSTABILITY IS INCREASING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH A
  WEAK CAPPING INVERSION EXPECTED TO BREAK AFTER 2 PM.

  VERTICAL WIND PROFILES MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OVER
  EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO. HOWEVER...HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND
  SPORADIC WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN STORM
  HAZARDS.

  A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
  LATER TONIGHT...AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR ANOTHER ROUND
  OF THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH STORMS
  THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
  THE EASTERN MISSOURI OZARKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             7 N GAINESVILLE         36.70N 92.43W
05/09/2006  E1.00 INCH       OZARK              MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORTED NEAR TANEY MOUNTAIN...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF
            GAINESVILLE ON HIGHWAY 181

&&

SCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
649 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 NW BAKERSFIELD        36.55N 92.18W
05/09/2006                   OZARK              MO   PUBLIC

            FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED FROM EE AND 101 NEAR
            BAKERSFIELD...LOOKING NORTH

&&

SCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
702 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             CAULFIELD               36.61N 92.10W
05/09/2006  E1.50 INCH       HOWELL             MO   PUBLIC

            PING PONG AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN CAULFIELD

&&

SCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
724 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     HAIL             MOODY                   36.53N 91.99W
05/09/2006  E1.00 INCH       HOWELL             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND STRONG ROTATION REPORTED NEAR MOODY
            BY TRAINED SPOTTERS. RELAYED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

&&

SCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
730 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     HAIL             MOODY                   36.53N 91.99W
05/09/2006  E2.50 INCH       HOWELL             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL

&&

SCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
743 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CAULFIELD               36.61N 92.10W
05/09/2006                   HOWELL             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            8 MILE STRETCH OF V HIGHWAY SOUTHWEST OF CAULFIELD
            FLOODED IN LOW LYING AREAS. CREEKS ARE OUT OF BANKS.
            SOUTHERN PORTION OF OO HIGHWAY FLOODED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST
            OF CAULFIELD

&&

SCHULTZ