Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL AND SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY.

CURRENTLY...40 TO 50 KT VEERED LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS OKLAHOMA POINTED
AT SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX REALLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
STARTING TO DEVELOP INTO MORE OF A TRAINING PATTERN AS LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS.  EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO TRAVERSE EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING WHERE PW VALUES OF 1.2 TO 1.4 EXIST.
CURRENTLY HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT FOR FIRST 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES AND
AT THE MOMENT THIS LOOKS GOOD.  EVOLUTION OF THE MCS THIS MORNING
WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR THIS AFTEROON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.  IF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY
OVER KANSAS KEEPS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN IN MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE
AREA THE LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP STORM REDEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SAGGING COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE CWA.  HOWEVER...IF
SOME CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...INSTABILITIES SHOULD
INCREASE QUITE A BIT WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  STORMS SHOULD
REDEVELOP GIVEN THIS SCENARIO BY THE MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
TORNADOES COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.  THE BEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  AT THIS POINT IN THE MCS STAGE...DIFFICULT TO TELL WHICH
SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT BUT AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE FIRST ONE
WITH MAINLY CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES A GOOD PART OF THE DAY.
THAT SAID...DONT PLAN TO TOTALLY IGNORE THE OTHER POSSIBILITY EITHER
AND WILL MENTION SEVERE CHANCES IN THE MORNING HWO WITH ABOVE
DISCLAIMER.

NAM/GFS IN DISAGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION FORECAST
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH NAM BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR IN FASTER AND
KEEPING MAIN ACTIVITY OUT OF THE CWA.  GFS HAS ANOTHER MCS AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND
ENDING THE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION AS IT HAS BEEN THE BETTER MODEL OF LATE...BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST AS DESCRIBED IN THE ABOVE
PARAGRAPH.

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SEVERAL MORE WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD ROTATE THROUGH THE
CWA AROUND THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THURSDAY HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS
PRETTY LIMITED FOR MENTION OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  HAVE NOT
CHANGED MUCH IN THE LATER PERIODS.  UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP
SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY WITH COOLER AIR MASS
PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LINDENBERG
&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING AFFECTING BOTH JLN/SGF LOCATIONS.  SHOULD SEE
CEILINGS OF 900 FEET TO 2000 FEET WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO AROUND 2 MILES.

THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AT
BOTH TERMINAL LOCATIONS...CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT.  CEILINGS OF
1000 TO 2000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3 MILES WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE THUNDERSTORMS.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...FLOOD WATCH HWY 71 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY AM.
KS...FLOOD WATCH LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY AM.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-091800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
632 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING...
   LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS.
   DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
   ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   TORRENTIAL RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

THIS MORNING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF A PITTSBURG KANSAS TO SALEM LINE.  THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

  DISCUSSION:

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE MORNING.  SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WIND
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI COUNTIES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER THESE SAME LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MISSOURI OZARKS TODAY.  IF SOME CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...
INSTABILITY WILL BE BEGIN TO INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEW POINTS INCREASE
INTO THE MID 60S.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A SQUALL LINE
LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN MISSOURI OZARKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE EASTERN MISSOURI OZARKS.  DRIER AIR SHOULD PUSH THE
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
SOUTHERN MISSOURI COUNTIES THROUGH NOON.  SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OZARKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
648 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 AM     HAIL             AURORA                  36.97N 93.72W
05/09/2006  E1.75 INCH       LAWRENCE           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            MIXED HAIL FROM NICKLE TO GOLFBALL SIZE.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NEOSHO                  36.87N 94.37W
05/09/2006                   NEWTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MINOR FLOODING REPORTED IN NEOSHO CITY LIMITS. LAW
            ENFORCEMENT HAS CLOSED W. SPRING STREET.

&&

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
652 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

MOZ090-095-103-091245-
CHRISTIAN-GREENE-STONE-
652 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CHRISTIAN...GREENE AND STONE
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

AT 648 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM I-44 NEAR MILE
MARKER 60 TO REPUBLIC TO CRANE.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR I-44 NEAR MILE MARKER 70 BY 700 AM CDT.
  NEAR NIXA BY 705 AM CDT.
  NEAR I-44 NEAR MILE MARKER 80 BY 710 AM CDT.
  NEAR OZARK BY 715 AM CDT.
  NEAR STRAFFORD BY 725 AM CDT.

HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL IS
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

CRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
700 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     HAIL             4 N BUTTERFIELD         36.81N 93.91W
05/09/2006  E1.75 INCH       BARRY              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
701 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 AM     HAIL             4 NW PURDY              36.86N 93.97W
05/09/2006  E1.75 INCH       BARRY              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
710 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     HAIL             MONETT                  36.92N 93.93W
05/09/2006  E0.88 INCH       BARRY              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

HATCH