Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE AND AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
615 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

REGIONAL 88D IMAGERY SHOWING SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE SFC COLD
FRONT FROM SE KS THROUGH CENTRAL MO. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN AREA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL AND HAVE UPPED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL FROM VERNON TO PHELPS COUNTIES AND POINTS NORTHWARD.
HAVE ALTERED POPS ACROSS SE ZONE THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...RAISING BACK TO LIKELY TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THIS AREA. RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SW QUARTER OF
MISSOURI RATHER DIFFICULT. FOR THIS EVENING...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA...HOWEVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTINUE
TO SPORADICALLY FIRE. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR
TONIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE BEST JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
SE KS AND W MO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT BETTER HERE...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MORE PRISTINE AS COMPARED TO AREAS OVER THE EASTERN
OZARKS (WHICH HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER BY PREVIOUS STORMS). MLCAPES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE THIS EVENING AND 700-500
LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL RISK. LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TORNADO RISK IS LOW...AND WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE MOST INTENSE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

GAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM NEAR IRK TO COU TO CNU. THE
AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODESTLY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S HAVE RESULTED
IN MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG...GIVE OR TAKE. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD
FRONT...SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE SCATTERED ABOUT THE AREA.
ALOFT TWO UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED...WITH ONE OVER NORTHERN
ARKANSAS AND THE OTHER MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.

TO THIS POINT...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN OUR FOCUS MECHANISM
WITH BROAD UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE DISTURBANCES ALOFT. EFFECTIVE DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR OF 30-35KT IS ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION INTO
CLUSTERS/BANDS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VECTOR AND AS A RESULT...HAVE SEEN A TENDENCY FOR
REGENERATIVE/SLIGHTLY BACKBUILDING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AND
VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED FLOODING
RISK. WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C AND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE
EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL CONTINUE. SHEAR IS REMINISCENT OF SUMMER...WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS MORE LIKE SPRING. THUS PRIMARY RISK IS LARGE
HAIL...SECONDARY RISK IS LOCALIZED WIND.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD AND SETTLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY SUNRISE. GIVEN
SEEMINGLY CHAOTIC NATURE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HAVE MAINTAINED
LIKELY POPS...AS A FEW AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT TONIGHT...HANGING AROUND 60 NEAR
THE FRONT. A FEW MORE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE W/E ACROSS THE AREA
THUR AND THUR NIGHT. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHER TIER OF COUNTIES...TAPERING TO LOWER CHC OVER CENTRAL MO.
TEMPS ARE ADMITTEDLY TRICKY THUR AND THUR NIGHT...DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVERAGE AND RAIN DISTRIBUTION. BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS FOR
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 THUR AFTERNOON WITH LOWS
BACK INTO THE 50S THUR NIGHT.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION
AS SFC FRONT LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER NORTHERN ARK. HAVE CUT BACK ON
POPS WITH LOW END CHC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHC OVER CENTRAL MO. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SAT THROUGH WED...MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...HOWEVER THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING SMALLER SCALE FEATURES EMBEDDED
THEREIN. THE FIRST ISSUE IS FOR THE WEEKEND WHERE THE ECMWF HAS
BECOME RATHER PESSIMISTIC MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND SHOWER POTENTIAL.
THE GFS ENS AND UKMET SUGGESTS LINGER RAIN CHANCE EARLY SATURDAY
WITH CLEAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY FROM THE GFS ENS AND UKMET...HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THESE
SOLUTIONS.

IN SPITE OF DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND...CONSENSUS REMAINS FOR
ANOTHER TROUGH PASSAGE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE
SPREAD CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
CONFIDENCE IN PIN-POINTING THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY WITH LOW END CHC POPS AND A RETURN TO AVERAGE
TEMPS.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...FORECAST CONUNDRUM REMAINS THE BELIGERENT
CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH OF SGF AND JLN. THE COLD FRONT
RESPONSIBLE FOR FOCUSING THIS CONVECTION IS SLOWLY SAGGING TO THE
SOUTH. FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING...TSRA SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE NORTH OVER WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT IS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...SO THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT WILL BE SLOW. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD TSRA POTENTIAL TOWARD
MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER. CIGS/VIS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
VFR...WITH MVFR CIGS ON TAP THURSDAY.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1030 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041845-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1030 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  QUARTERS...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HOUSTON TO GAINESVILLE UNTIL
  MIDNIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
  TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE
  AIRMASS...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.

  TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. THE
  SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL RESULT IN ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
  RAINFALL FALLING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS A RESULT...
  LOCALIZED FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS IS
  EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA ON THURSDAY.
  A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL BE
  POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...FARTHER TO THE NORTH SMALLER
  HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
  TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER EXTREME SOUTH
  CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY/GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
953 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N AVA                 37.02N 92.66W
05/03/2006                   DOUGLAS            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1016 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E GREENFIELD          37.42N 93.80W
05/03/2006                   DADE               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LOW WATER CROSSING FLOODED

&&

LDOOLEY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1019 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SPRINGFIELD             37.20N 93.29W
05/03/2006                   GREENE             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROAD AT 2500 BLOCK OF WEST COLLEGE

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1022 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     TSTM WND DMG     15 SE GENTRYVILLE       36.71N 92.17W
05/03/2006                   OZARK              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 14

&&

LDOOLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1023 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

MOZ106-040415-
OREGON-
1023 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR OREGON COUNTY UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1021 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF THAYER...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

DSA