Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Springfield, MO

February 16, 2006Oregon County, Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Feb 16, 2006, 4:52 PM CST for Oregon County, Missouri. It was in force for 29 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Feb 16, 2006, 4:52 PM CST (22:52 UTC)
Expired: Feb 16, 2006, 5:21 PM CST
In force: 29 min
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Oregon County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 182 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Feb 16, 5:00 PM CST	HAIL 1	1 W Thayer, MO	QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED 1 MILE WEST OF THAYER
Feb 16, 5:15 PM CST	HAIL 0.25	Thayer, MO	PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN THAYER

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 8 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Feb 16, 1:16 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 211 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 22 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -433 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 810 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 530 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 609 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KSGF 162252
SVRSGF
MOC149-162330-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0017.060216T2252Z-060216T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
452 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  OREGON COUNTY IN MISSOURI.

* UNTIL 530 PM CST.

* AT 450 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
  HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS
  WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN
  VIEW TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS TO 12 MILES WEST OF
  MAMMOTH SPRING...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR THAYER BY 500 PM CST.
  NEAR ALTON BY 510 PM CST.

THE TOWNS OF KOSHKONONG...ROVER...THOMASVILLE...COUCH...GREER...
MYRTLE AND WILDERNESS ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THESE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3678 9168 3679 9166 3687 9166 3687 9124
      3683 9124 3682 9123 3682 9115 3650 9115
      3650 9168

$$

TERRY

1 follow-up statement

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 162321
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
520 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

MOC149-162330-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-060216T2330Z/
OREGON MO-
520 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR OREGON COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AT 520 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO 
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

IF SEVERE WEATHER WAS OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO THE NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD.

LAT...LON 3678 9168 3679 9166 3687 9166 3687 9124
      3683 9124 3682 9123 3682 9115 3650 9115
      3650 9168

$$

TERRY

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Feb 16, 2:56 PM CST, 1 hour 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 16, 2:56 PM CST, 1 hour 56 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP IN A TYPICAL WINTER SEVERE HIGH SHEAR/LOW
INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE MO OZARKS. MUCAPES ABOUT 500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-1KM
SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS TO 250-300 M2/S2. LOW TOPPED
SUPERCELL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH DISCRETE CELLS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF PEA-DIME HAIL...BUT
INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS ARE GETTING STRONGER AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST.
WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO TRY TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINE ALONG THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

THERE IS A BIG TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND DIDNT STRAY
TO FAR FROM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO
DEG F OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

STRONG ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION. A
SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT UP AND OVER
THE COLD AIR DOME. THE QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW WELL WILL
PRECIPITATION BE ABLE TO SATURATE THE EXTREMELY DRY LOWER LEVELS.
THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOK TO BE OVER
SOUTHERN MO...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AR
BORDER. OVERALL...I FOLLOWED A BLEND OF HPC QPF AND MODEL GUIDANCE.
SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE IS ABOUT 2 INCHES FRIDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN HOW DRY THE LOW LEVELS ARE...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
SNOW SHOULD END FAIRLY ABRUPTLY. NEXT SHIFTS STILL HAVE SOME TIME TO
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS UNFOLDING SITUATION. THE GFS PROGS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE AR
BORDER.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST AFTER EARLY MONDAY IS DRY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. GFS INDICATES THAT THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED BY WED-THU WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR POSSIBLE BY LATE
THU. GFS PAINTS A POSSIBLE RAIN-SNOW EVENT THU BUT THERE IS A WIDE
MARGIN FOR ERROR THAT FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY IN A
TRANSITIONING PATTERN.  DSA

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE RELATE TO
WINDS AND CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT
CURRENTLY POSITIONED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF KJLN. FRONT SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH KJLN AROUND 19Z AND KSGF AROUND 22Z.  LOWERED CEILINGS
TO OVC015 AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN BETWEEN 03-06Z TONIGHT.

GAEDE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 16, 1:00 PM CST, 3 hours 52 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171900-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
100 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ONE INCH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM VIENNA TO SPRINGFIELD TO CASSVILLE. THE
OVERALL BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS...SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
BRANSON TO ROLLA. INITIALLY...INDIVIDUAL STORMS MAY POSE A RISK
FOR SMALL HAIL...BUT AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM INTO A LINE...OR AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE...WHICH MAY POSE A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS AFTER 3 PM. GIVEN THE WIND
SHEAR PROFILES...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 3 PM. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT EAST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA BY 8 PM.

  DISCUSSION:

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER UNUSUALLY MILD AND UNSTABLE AIR. STRONG
WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SUPPORT LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

UNUSUALLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND ZERO ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED...EAST OF A VIENNA TO CASSVILLE
LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 16, 3:45 PM CST, 1 hour 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
345 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND GST     HOUSTON                 37.33N 91.96W
02/16/2006  E50 MPH          TEXAS              MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER ESTIMATED WIND SPEED IN HOUSTON AT 50 MPH.
            NO WIND DAMAGE SEEN. REPORTED AUTO ACCIDENT 2S OF HOUSTON
            DUE TO HAIL ACCUMULATION ON ROAD FORCING CAR TO SLIDE OFF
            THE HIGHWAY

&&

GCLAYCOM

Local storm report, Feb 16, 4:27 PM CST, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
427 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     HAIL             AKERS                   37.38N 91.55W
02/16/2006  E0.75 INCH       SHANNON            MO   PARK/FOREST SRVC

&&

DSA

Local storm report, Feb 16, 4:36 PM CST, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
436 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     HAIL             HOUSTON                 37.33N 91.96W
02/16/2006  E0.88 INCH       TEXAS              MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. NO ESTIMATE ON WIND
            SPEEDS OR REPORTS OF DAMAGE

0353 PM     HAIL             AKERS                   37.38N 91.55W
02/16/2006  E0.75 INCH       SHANNON            MO   PARK/FOREST SRVC

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PONTIAC                 36.52N 92.60W
02/16/2006                   OZARK              MO   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN. LIMBS ALSO DOWN ON HWY 5 EAST OF PONTIAC.

&&

DSA

Local storm report, Feb 16, 4:45 PM CST, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
445 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RAYMONDVILLE            37.34N 91.83W
02/16/2006                   TEXAS              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF TOWN. SMALL HAIL.

&&

DSA

Local storm report, Feb 16, 4:48 PM CST, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
448 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             5 NW EMINENCE           37.20N 91.42W
02/16/2006  U0.75 INCH       SHANNON            MO   PARK/FOREST SRVC

&&

DSA

Special weather statement, Feb 16, 4:48 PM CST, 4 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
448 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

MOZ098-162315-
SHANNON-
448 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SHANNON COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM CST...

AT 442 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EMINENCE TO 8 MILES
NORTH OF BIRCH TREE TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOUNTAIN VIEW...OR ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 34 MILES EAST OF HOUSTON TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF HOUSTON TO 21 MILES NORTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS...AND MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PENNY SIZE HAIL WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.

TERRY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 16, 1:15 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Camden, Laclede	23 min
Feb 16, 2:13 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Christian	17 min
Feb 16, 2:48 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Webster, Wright	34 min
Feb 16, 3:11 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Texas	49 min
Feb 16, 3:37 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dent, Shannon	38 min
Feb 16, 3:43 PM CST	Tornado Warning	SGF	Shannon	47 min
Feb 16, 3:55 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Ozark	45 min
Feb 16, 4:26 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Howell	41 min
Feb 16, 5:10 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Shannon	15 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.