Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
320 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE FORMING ALONG A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM
SEDALIA TO MONETT THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FINALLY BEEN REACHED. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WIND SHEAR
AHEAD OF ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN STORM
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE DRYLINE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI WILL LIFT EAST NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN IOWA AND NW ILLINOIS TONIGHT QUICKLY DRAGGING THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MID EVENING. WILL SEE
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND EXITING STORM SYSTEM. ALSO WILL SEE STRONG
COLD ADVECTION DROPPING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 50S INTO
THE 40S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. AS 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 552 DM...LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW SOME AREAS TO COOL TO
NEAR FREEZING.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM EASTERN WY TO WEST TEXAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW
PRECIP CHANCES FOR WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT TYPE SHOWERS AHEAD
OF MAIN SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST GFS SHOWS THE MAIN SYSTEM
TRACKING MORE TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY LESSEN SEVERE
THREAT A BIT. HOWEVER WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AND ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE...WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
GOING WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY. WILL LINGER LOW
CHANCES ON FRIDAY OVER ALL BUT OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.

MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND MILD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOMINATE THE AREA.

TERRY
&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...DRYLINE CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD AND
IS THROUGH THE JLN AREA AND WILL MAKE IT THROUGH SGF BETWEEN 19-21Z.
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE RIGHT AS ITS
MOVING THROUGH SGF BUT PROBABILITIES ARE FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY
TS IN TAF AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 30-35KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER FROM SW TO W THEN EVENTUALLY NW AFTER SUNRISE
MONDAY.

IZZI

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-031100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
100 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN
OZARKS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MAY PRODUCE:
    HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS.
    DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH.
    AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  BETWEEN 2 PM AND 9 PM GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.

  DISCUSSION:

  A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
  EASTERN OZARKS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING DRYLINE. AS THE DRYLINE MOVES
  EASTWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM
  ALONG OR JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
  AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE
  QUICKLY...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
  WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY AS LARGE AS GOLF BALL
  TO BASEBALL SIZE. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...SOME POTENTIAL DOES
  EXIST FOR A TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST
  OF AN OSAGE BEACH TO AVA LINE.

  BEHIND THE DRYLINE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
  OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH WINDS GUSTING TO
  BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER
  CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEST OF AN AVA TO OSAGE BEACH
  LINE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 4 PM...WITH SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY TO THE
  EAST OF THERE AFTER 3 PM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GI/MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
412 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     HAIL             THAYER                  36.52N 91.54W
04/02/2006  E1.00 INCH       OREGON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
414 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             ST. ROBERT              37.83N 92.18W
04/02/2006  E0.75 INCH       PULASKI            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
415 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             CHESTNUTRIDGE           36.84N 93.25W
04/02/2006  E1.00 INCH       CHRISTIAN          MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
419 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALEM                   37.65N 91.54W
04/02/2006                   DENT               MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE DOWN. METAL SHEAD BLOWN DOWN

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
420 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             ICONIUM                 38.11N 93.54W
04/02/2006  E1.00 INCH       ST. CLAIR          MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

0400 PM     HAIL             3 S MOUNTAIN GROVE      37.09N 92.26W
04/02/2006  E1.00 INCH       TEXAS              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N ROLLA               37.97N 91.77W
04/02/2006                   PHELPS             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE LIMBS DOWNED

0400 PM     HAIL             12 SE ROLLA             37.83N 91.62W
04/02/2006  E0.88 INCH       PHELPS             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0400 PM     HAIL             WEST PLAINS             36.73N 91.85W
04/02/2006  E1.75 INCH       HOWELL             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0410 PM     HAIL             EDWARDS                 38.14N 93.17W
04/02/2006  E1.00 INCH       BENTON             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MTERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
421 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             SUMMERSVILLE            37.18N 91.66W
04/02/2006  E0.75 INCH       SHANNON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MTERRY