Freeze Warning 2, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS73 KSGF 131406
NPWSGF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
906 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006

MOZ057-058-069>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-105-131515-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-061013T1400Z/
MILLER-MARIES-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-
WEBSTER-WRIGHT-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-OZARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...
OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...WAYNESVILLE...
ROLLA...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...
MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA
906 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006

...FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE FREEZE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

$$

JLT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
550 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION AS
ADVERTISED. 00Z KSGF SOUNDING LOOKS TO BE ABOUT MONTH (AT LEAST )
AHEAD OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL SCHEDULE WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF
MINUS ONE DEG C. AWOS/ASOS/MESONET SITES INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES
HAVE MADE IT TO NEAR FREEZING IN MANY AREAS MOST NOTABLY KAIZ/KVIH.
SOME MESONET SITES OUTSIDE THE FREEZE ADVISORY ARE ALSO NEAR
FREEZING. TERRAIN NO DOUBT PLAYING A BIG PART IN HOW LOW
TEMPERATURES AT ANY PARTICULAR STATION WILL GO.

MAIN CONCERNS ARE A FROST/FREEZE AGAIN TONIGHT...AND RAIN CHANCES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MASSIVE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND CANADA WILL START TO SHIFT EAST. 850MB
TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO EASE BACK UP TODAY...AND WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE (MAYBE SOME MID CLOUDS AT TIMES)...WE SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 50S OVER MID
MISSOURI. A SURFACE RIDGE NOW ACROSS NEB/EASTERN KS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH NEAR IDEAL RADIATION COOLING ASSUMING PESKY
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS DONT BECOME TOO WIDESPREAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT...BUT MAY TOUCH FREEZING OVER
CENTRAL MO. CERTAINLY THERE IS FROST POTENTIAL...IF NOT A FREEZE
AGAIN AT THE VERY LEAST. WILL BRIEF DAYSHIFT AND HAVE THEM LOOK AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE NPW TONIGHT.

CUTOFF ALONG THE CA COAST IS STILL PROGGED TO GET PICKED UP BY A
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLES WERE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN OPENING
UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT QUICKLY EAST THROUGH AR/SOUTHERN MO LATE
MONDAY. IN THE MEAN TIME...REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO OPEN THE GULF OF MEXICO
UP...ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. HAVE
BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS MOISTURE AND
INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MOVING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ANEMIC THIS FAR NORTH/EAST UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM MONDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REDEVELOP A SHARP UPPER RIDGE ALONG 130-140W
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH A CORRESPONDING
STRONG DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER NOAM. DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS
ARE NOT REAL CLEAR....BUT AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK...TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE
EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS CLOSE TO REALITY...MOVING THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLDEST AIR INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
THURSDAY. DSA

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGE POLAR VORTEX
CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT UNLIMITED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED WIND SHEAR
AT KJLN THROUGH 15Z WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND 35KT WINDS AROUND
1700 FEET SHOWN ON THE NEODESHA PROFILER.

MMT

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM APPLETON CITY TO BRANSON.
FREEZE ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM WEST OF AN APPLETON CITY TO
BRANSON LINE.
KS...FREEZE ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
448 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-141000-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
448 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM FORT SCOTT TO
BRANSON. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 30S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA