Alert archive / Missouri / Flash Flood Warnings in 2006

Flash Flood Warning 80, NWS Springfield, MO

July 11, 2006Oregon County, Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this flash flood warning at Jul 11, 2006, 2:20 PM CDT for Oregon County, Missouri. It was in force for 5 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 11, 2006, 2:20 PM CDT (19:20 UTC)
Expired: Jul 11, 2006, 7:15 PM CDT
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Oregon County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 193 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 222 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 106 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -256 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 941 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 136 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 110 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS53 KSGF 111923
FFWSGF
MOC149-120015-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
220 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  OREGON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT.

* AT 215 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN             
  OREGON...NORTHEAST HOWELL...AND SOUTHERN SHANNON COUNTIES.         
  RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 2    
  INCHES PER HOUR AND RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL WILL FLOW INTO       
  NORTHERN OREGON COUNTY.  THIS RUNOFF WILL CAUSE THE ONGOING        
  FLOODING CONDITIONS TO WORSEN WITH WATER LEVELS LIKELY RISING      
  FURTHER.

* SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN THE
  WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH
  FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING
  INCLUDE...GREER...THOMASVILLE AND WILDERNESS.

THIS WARNING REPLACES THE FLOOD WARNING WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY IN 
EFFECT.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

LAT...LON 3688 9124 3682 9124 3682 9113 3650 9114
      3650 9122 3675 9131 3675 9166 3688 9167

$$

SAW

1 follow-up statement

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 112116
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
415 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

MOC149-120015-
OREGON MO-
415 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OREGON COUNTY UNTIL 715
PM CDT...

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED SOUTH 
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.  IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES FELL ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST HOWELL AND SOUTHWEST SHANNON COUNTIES...WITH 
LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS OREGON COUNTY.  RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL 
WILL FLOW SOUTHWARD INTO OREGON COUNTY...PRODUCING FLOODING OF LOW 
WATER CROSSINGS AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING.  WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL 
IS POSSIBLE.

BECAUSE OF THE HILLY TERRAIN OF THE OZARKS...THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF
LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO
NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT
ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES
AWAY.

LAT...LON 3688 9124 3682 9124 3682 9113 3650 9114
      3650 9122 3672 9137 3675 9166 3688 9167

$$

SAW

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 11, 2:09 PM CDT, 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 11, 2:09 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
209 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM...

IN THE SHORT TERM...GOING POP AND WEATHER GRIDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE
SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS. SHOULD SEE PRECIP INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AFTER NOON AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MCVS OVER OKLAHOMA AND
MISSOURI MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. VORTICITY MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB TROUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH THIS TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION. LLJ OF 10-25KTS NOT MUCH TO WORK WITH BUT ISENTROPIC
LIFT EFFECT NOTED ON 310K SURFACE WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

THE AIRMASS OVER THE OZARKS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH THE 12Z SGF
SOUNDING DEPICTING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.9 INCHES. WATER
VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM
IOWA INTO OKLAHOMA.

WITH THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS...HAVE PUT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS. WHILE
MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5SM VISIBILITY SOME LOCATIONS COULD
SEE LOWER VISIBILITIES.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE REMAINS IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH
MID WEEK AS WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND SOUTHWESTERN
HIGH RETREATS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION RATHER ACTIVE
INTO THURSDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE THE UPPER PATTERN INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.

HATCH

EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS UNCHANGED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR
EARLY/MID JULY. THIS BASICALLY MEANS THAT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY BECOME MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THIS WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW BUT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND NEARLY NO CAP IN PLACE AS 85/70H TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN CHECK...AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS NO FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO FORM AT
THIS TIME. THEREFORE...KEPT 13/20 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAINFALL FOR
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DGEX REMAINS ONE OF THE OUTLIERS
AS IT TRIES TO BEGIN A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. HPC HAS DOWNPLAYED THIS SCENARIO...BUT THE OVERALL MEAN OF
THE ENSEMBLES AND TRENDS DO SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION OF HOW
THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND IF WE GET A BREAK IN THE HEAT
NEXT WEEK...

JLT

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WEATHER AROUND BOTH TAF SITES WILL INCLUDE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CEILINGS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
05Z. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BRIEFLY AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION RETURNING MVFR CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

HATCH
&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 10 PM.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 11, 12:51 PM CDT, 1 hour 29 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-121800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY WIND
  GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

  HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR COULD LEAD
  TO FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
  OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
  INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OZARKS.
  CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS AND MISSOURI OZARKS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
  TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR OVER
  AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
  FLASH FLOODING.

  MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIND
  SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG STRAIGHT
  LINE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
  CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
  BE LOW.

  HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH...OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS
  PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

HATCH

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 11, 10:23 AM CDT, 3 hours 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1023 AM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ROVER                   36.72N 91.62W
07/10/2006                   OREGON             MO   PUBLIC

            CONTINUED FLASH FLOODING NEAR THE ROVER AREA.

&&

DCRAMER

Local storm report, Jul 11, 10:25 AM CDT, 3 hours 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1025 AM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ALLEY SPRING            37.14N 91.44W
07/10/2006                   SHANNON            MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            NUMEROUS ROADS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS BECAME IMPASSABLE
            DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. THE JACKS FORK RIVER FLOODED THE
            CAMP GROUND AT ALLEY SPRING CAMP GROUND...WITH FIVE FEET
            OF WATER COVERING THE MUCH OF THE CAMP GROUND.

&&

DCRAMER

Local storm report, Jul 11, 10:44 AM CDT, 3 hours 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1044 AM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N BUFFALO             37.67N 93.09W
07/10/2006                   DALLAS             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A SECTION OF HIGHWAY 65 BECAME INUNDATED WITH FLASH
            FLOODING. MORE FLASH FLOOD INFORMATION IN DALLAS COUNTY
            WILL BE RELAYED TO THE NWS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

&&

DCRAMER

Local storm report, Jul 11, 10:45 AM CDT, 3 hours 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1045 AM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ALLEY SPRING            37.14N 91.44W
07/10/2006                   SHANNON            MO   PUBLIC

            CONTINUED FLASH FLOODING OVER MANY AREAS OF SHANNON
            COUNTY.

&&

DCRAMER

Local storm report, Jul 11, 1:03 PM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
103 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N THEODOSIA           36.60N 92.68W
07/11/2006                   OZARK              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

MMT

Local storm report, Jul 11, 1:24 PM CDT, 56 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
124 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 PM     TSTM WND DMG     THEODOSIA               36.58N 92.68W
07/11/2006                   OZARK              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN AND NORTH OF THEODOSIA. REQUEST
            FOR CHAINSAWS TO CLEAN UP TREE DAMAGE.

&&

MMT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 10, 7:45 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Dallas, Howell, Laclede, Oregon, Shannon, Texas and 2 more	13 hr
Jul 11, 12:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Ozark	56 min
Jul 11, 12:52 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Ozark	6 hr
Jul 11, 12:56 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Shannon	6 hr
Jul 11, 1:13 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Douglas, Howell, Texas	6 hr
Jul 11, 2:47 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Dent	4 hr
Jul 11, 4:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Webster	64 min
Jul 11, 5:09 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Webster	6 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2006 Every flash flood warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.