Flash Flood Warning 67, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 111135
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

MOC161-111645-
PHELPS MO-
632 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PHELPS COUNTY UNTIL 1145
AM CDT...

AT 629 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXITING THE EASTERN PORTION 
OF PHELPS COUNTY.  THESE STORMS HAD EARLIER PRODUCED BETWEEN TWO AND 
THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL BETWEEN ROLLA AND ST. JAMES.

WHILE THIS BATCH OF RAINFALL WAS EXITING PHELPS COUNTY...ANOTHER 
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS 
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING.

RUNOFF FROM THE PREVIOUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN AN AREA FROM JUST NORTH OF ROLLA TO ST. 
JAMES.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

LAT...LON 3786 9154 3786 9198 3802 9196 3806 9191
      3805 9164 3816 9164 3816 9154

$$

LINDENBERG

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 111517
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1016 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

MOC161-111526-
PHELPS MO-
1016 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PHELPS COUNTY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.


LAT...LON 3786 9154 3786 9198 3802 9196 3806 9191
      3805 9164 3816 9164 3816 9154

$$

TERRY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
538 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

.UPDATE...

FINALLY STARTING TO GET SOME ACTION OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREAS. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH.

GCC

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...331 AM.

FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH CONVECTION
FIRING OFF OVER EAX AND LSX CWAS. AND FOR US...CELLS JUST STARTING
TO SHOW UP IN OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES.

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MCS IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
CONGEALING WITH THE MCS THATS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AT PRESENT.
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE KANSAS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN DYING OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO AND COMPLEX HAS TAKEN ON A
MORE EASTERLY MOVEMENT VS SOUTHEASTERLY AS IT HAD BEEN EARLIER THIS
MORNING. CANT RULE OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THIS MCS...SO KEPT LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FIRST IMPRESSION THOUGH WAS THAT ALL WE
WOULD SEE WOULD BE THE MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WHICH LEADS US TO TODAYS TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

STILL 84 AT JOPLIN AS OF 2 AM...80 AT SPRINGFIELD. MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWING HI TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR BOTH LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S.
MODCURVES SHOWING MAX TEMPERATURE FOR SGF IN THE UPPER 90S USING
CURRENT CONDITIONS. DO BELIEVE DEBRIS FROM THE KANSAS MCS WILL
INHIBIT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SOMEWHAT. POSSIBLY EVEN A SHOWER OR
TWO COULD LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SOME. BUT SINCE WE ARE STARTING
OFF SO WARM...HAD TO GO WITH LOW 90S HERE AT SGF AND MID 90S FOR JLN
TODAY.

MODELS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM. GFS CONTINUES TO TRY TO MOVE THE FRONT TO THE MO/AR STATE
LINE WILL NAM KEEPS BOUNDARY UP OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.
WENT WITH THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION THAT FINALLY BRINGS THE FRONT
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFF
TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT NAM
SHOWING SOME QPFS OVER OUR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AS
WELL. INTRODUCED LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CWA. NAM MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING CAPES OVER 3500 J/KG WITH NO CIN
THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS FORCING MECHANISM TO GET
THUNDERSTORMS GOING TODAY AFTER 21Z. ALSO SHOULD BE SOME INTERACTION
OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE KANSAS MCS THAT MAY GET THUNDERSTORMS
GOING A LITTLE EARLIER. WILL OUTLINE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE HWO AFTER NOONTIME TODAY LASTING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

GET A LITTLE COOLING AS THE FRONT SAGS THROUGH FOR MONDAY. 850MB
TEMPS DROP FROM AROUND 22-24C THIS AFTERNOON DOWN TO 18C MONDAY
MORNING. SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY
OVER TODAY. BUT ONLY BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS OF THE LOW TO MID 80S.
NAM HINTING AT A POSSIBLE MCS FORMATION OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS FOR
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SLT CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY.

MADE NO CHANGES TO FORECAST FROM TUESDAY ON. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES
TO START CREEPING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BY WEDNESDAY AS
EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHES
ITSELF OVER THE AREA.

GCC

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE JLN/SGF TERMINAL FORECASTS...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS VFR FOR
NOW.  CONVECTION FIRING WELL TO THE NORTH OF BOTH TERMINAL FORECAST
POINTS AND WOULD EXPECT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN THERE.
HAVE KEPT CEILINGS FROM 15 KFT TO 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 1 PM SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN
OSCEOLA TO CAMDENTON TO VICHY LINE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
429 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-120930-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
429 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
  70 MPH...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
  LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OSCEOLA TO VIENNA THIS
  MORNING. AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PETERSBURG TO STOCKTON TO
  SALEM AFTER NOON TODAY. THEN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
  AKERS TO AVA TO ANDERSON AFTER 6 PM THIS EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

  STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
  INTERACT WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
  TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL
  MISSOURI THROUGH LATE MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE
  AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
  CHEROKEE COUNTY KANSAS TO PHELPS COUNTY MISSOURI. THE BEST
  POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND
  NORTH OF A LINE FROM OSCEOLA TO VIENNA. WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD
  PRODUCE WINDS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.

  WITH THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS THIS
  MORNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
  WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS CENTRAL
  MISSOURI.

  THE ACTION THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD BY NOON TIME TODAY AS
  THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS
  THE FOCUS POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES SOUTH.
  THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM ROLLA TO BOLIVAR
  TO PITTSBURG BY 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
  MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND WILL BE ALONG A LINE FROM AKERS TO AVA TO
  ANDERSON AFTER 6 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
  MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE POTENTIAL
  FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING THROUGH 10 AM
  NORTH OF A LINE FROM OSCEOLA TO VIENNA. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
  BE NEEDED AFTER NOON TODAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
  PETERSBURG TO STOCKTON TO SALEM. THEN AFTER 6 PM THIS EVENING
  FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM AKERS TO AVA TO
  ANDERSON.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
435 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

MOZ058-111030-
MARIES-
435 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MARIES COUNTY UNTIL 530 AM CDT...

AT 433 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VIENNA...OR 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROLLA...
AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LINDENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
447 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

MOZ055>057-111000-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK
447 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 462 FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MISSOURI THIS CANCELS 3 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

BENTON                MILLER                MORGAN

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...COLE CAMP...ELDON...LAKE OZARK...
VERSAILLES AND WARSAW.

WFO SGF