Flash Flood Warning 62, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 042200
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
500 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2006

MOC149-050000-
OREGON MO-
500 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OREGON COUNTY UNTIL 700
PM CDT...

ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED LOCATIONS NEAR 
THOMASVILLE AND ALONG THE SHANNON COUNTY BORDER TO THE NORTHEAST OF 
GREER.  WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS NOW DISSIPATED...RUNOFF FROM 
NEARLY TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE RISING WATERS 
ALONG LOW WATER CROSSINGS IN THE THOMASVILLE AREA ALONG WITH FAR 
NORTHEAST OREGON COUNTY.

BECAUSE OF THE HILLY TERRAIN OF THE OZARKS...THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF
LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO
NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT
ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES
AWAY.

LAT...LON 3688 9124 3683 9124 3674 9156 3680 9160
      3683 9132 3688 9130

$$

SAW

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 042353
FFSSGF
MOC149-050000-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
652 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR OREGON COUNTY WILL BE 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

&&

$$

SAW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
155 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK CIRCULATION STILL EVIDENT ON REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY JUST NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD. LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY HAS KEPT INSTABILITY ALMOST
NON-EXISTENT ACROSS MOST OF THE OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ONLY
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION HAS RECENTLY SEEN
ANY TYPE OF SUNSHINE FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
EVEN WITH THESE INCREASED TEMPERATURES...INSTABILITY REMAINS
LIMITED AND AFTERNOON HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS ALREADY
DIMINISHED ANY SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS ONLY HIGHLIGHTED FAR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS FOR ANY TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS...AND EVEN THIS AREA
SEEMS TO BE WEAK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER AS OF 130 PM.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AS WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...NORTHWEST FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES TO CAUSE A WIDER AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
HOWEVER...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TONIGHT...BELIEVE LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY SET UP FURTHER
WESTWARD THAN LAST NIGHT. THEREFORE...ONLY KEPT IN 15/24% CHANCES OF
RAINFALL FOR FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES MONDAY
AS THE MAIN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION FIELD REMAINS WEST OF THE
AREA.

ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT (MODIFIED AT BEST) ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AN AREA OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND DIVE THIS SYSTEM SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AS CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION FIELD WILL LIKELY BE EXTENSIVE. LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.

EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF UPPER
RIDGE AND HOW THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT. HAVE KEPT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOW END PERCENTAGES...AND
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND.

JLT

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXISTS ROUGHLY FROM KPOF-KMCI AT THIS TIME.
THIS BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN MCV MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI WAS SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OVER WESTERN MISSOURI.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE KSGF TERMINAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KJLN AND KSGF THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH JUST A MENTION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT.

GAEDE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
101 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-051815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
101 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
STOCKTON...TO BOLIVAR...HARTVILLE AND BRANSON MISSOURI. THE
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION WHERE GREATER
INSTABILITY EXIST THROUGH 7 PM. IN THE AREA THAT STORMS
DEVELOP...EXPECT SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PERIODIC CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
APPEARS TO BE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL
NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

JLT