Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 312350
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
645 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

MOC145-010330-
NEWTON MO-
645 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NEWTON COUNTY UNTIL 1030
PM CDT...

AT 642 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN 
AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY FALLEN ACROSS 
WESTERN SECTIONS OF NEWTON COUNTY. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT 
BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL WITH THUNDERSTORMS 
EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE RAINFALL HAS ENDED OVER WESTERN NEWTON COUNTY...SOME 
RUNOFF FLOODING MAY STILL AFFECT THE TOWNS OF 
RACINE...SENECA...SPURGEON...ALSO ALONG WILLOW BROOK AND LOST CREEK.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

LAT...LON 3704 9427 3686 9429 3678 9461 3704 9462

$$

LINDENBERG

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 010326
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1026 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

MOC145-010336-
NEWTON MO-
1026 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NEWTON COUNTY HAS 
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1030 PM...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.


LAT...LON 3704 9427 3686 9429 3678 9461 3704 9462

$$
LINDENBERG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE 12Z KSGF SOUNDING MEASURED A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF NEARLY 1.6 INCHES. TWO VORT CENTERS ARE
MOST PROMINENT...ONE OVER NORTHERN MO AND THE OTHER OVER EASTERN MO.
ISOLATED SMALL TSTM UPDRAFTS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MO COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. AIRCRAFT
DATA AND WATER VAPOR INDICATE AT LEAST ONE MORE UPPER VORT IN THE
ARKLATEX REGION. FOR NOW...INSTABILITY (ML CAPES 1000-1200 J/KG) IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EXTREME
SOUTHERN MO INTO EASTERN OK. UPPER FEATURES WITH THIS CONVECTION IS
HARDER TO DISCERN...BUT IN GENERAL IT HAS FORMED IN A MIDLEVEL SHEAR
AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO NORTHWEST AR.

MAIN CONCERNS ARE HOW THE EXISTING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER FEATURES WILL EVOLVE. SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY HELP KICK THE SHEAR
AXIS/UPPER VORT CENTERS NOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION SHOULD TRY TO
CONTINUE TO FILL IN FROM NORTHERN MO WHERE UPPER LOW/VORT NOW
EXISTS...SSW INTO SOUTHWEST MO EASTERN OK. WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS
AND HIGH PWATS WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. HOURLY RADAR DERIVED PRECIP TOTALS BEAR THIS OUT WITH
VERY ISOLATED ONE-TWO INCH AMOUNTS. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS TONIGHT
WITH THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. IF I COULD REASONABLY
PINPOINT WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN COVERAGE WAS GOING TO OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER VORT OR SURFACE FEATURE...ID CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT STORM COVERAGE MY BE SOMEWHAT SCATTERED AND
WOULD RATHER NOT CHASE RADAR TRENDS YET.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IL INTO EAST CENTRAL
KS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVES/VORTS GETS KICKED TO THE EAST. WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA.

LONG TERM SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH FOR BOTH MODELS...RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS NOT
ALL THAT GREAT. WHILE THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR VERSUS PREVIOUS
RUNS...THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE WESTERN 500MB RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS IN PLACE OUT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE SHORTWAVES MOVE
OVER THE RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN CONUS VERSUS BUILDING
THE WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AS DEPICTED BY
PREVIOUS RUNS. A BROAD WEAK TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE
UPPER SYSTEMS IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. NNW-SSE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LIMITED RETURN MOISTURE WITH THIS TROUGH MAY
ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POPS FOR
THE TUE-TUE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. HAVE ALSO LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT
FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT THEY WILL STILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. DSA

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE KSGF/KJLN 18Z TAFS...LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MAIN
AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ONE
VERY PROMINENT VORT CENTER IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH OVER NORTHWEST
MO...AND ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE FEATURE IS MOVING NORTHEAST OVER
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MO. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER/VCTS
CHANCES IN THE TAFS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION AT BOTH TAF SITES. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MAY FOCUS CONVECTION LATER IN THE
TAF CYCLE...BUT TIMING/COVERAGE HARD TO PINPOINT AT THIS POINT. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
340 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-010200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
340 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN CONDUCIVE TO
 LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 ALL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS WILL
 HAVE POTENTIAL FOR EXPERIENCING SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
 CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

  DISCUSSION:

 A TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
 THE MISSOURI OZARKS. MOST AREAS WILL NOT ACQUIRE ENOUGH
 INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...FLASH
 FLOODING WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE
 PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...OR MAY BE ONGOING...THURSDAY AS A
 COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
 AND FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER