Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 292257
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
552 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

MOC029-131-300345-
CAMDEN MO-MILLER MO-
552 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAMDEN AND MILLER
COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 549 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT NEARLY TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN 
HAVE FALLEN IN MILL CREEK IN SOUTHEAST CAMDEN COUNTY...AND ACROSS 
TAVERN CREEK...BARRON FORK AND BRUSHY CREEK IN EASTERN MILLER COUNTY 
SINCE 4 PM. 

SEVERAL LOW WATER CROSSINGS FLOOD ALONG THESE CREEKS DURING TIMES OF 
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. DUE TO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS EARLY THIS 
EVENING...RAINFALL RATES WILL BE EXTREME HIGH WITH AMOUNTS OF TWO 
INCHES PER HOUR COMMON.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH 
FLOODING TO OCCUR. 

REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER 
COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR 
CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY SO THAT THEY
MAY TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO CLOSE FLOODED ROADWAYS. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD.

LAT...LON 3833 9220 3803 9219 3801 9239 3787 9242
      3792 9307 3822 9306 3824 9268 3842 9259

$$

JLT

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 300119
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
814 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

MOC029-131-300345-
CAMDEN MO-MILLER MO-
814 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAMDEN AND MILLER
COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 810 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN 
AREA OF LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. HOWEVER...EARLY 
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AFFECTED A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHEAST CAMDEN 
COUNTY...AND EASTERN MILLER COUNTY WITH AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE 
INCHES. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ACROSS MILL CREEK...BARRON 
FORK...BAILEY BRANCH...TAVERN CREEK AND BRUSHY CREEK BASINS. LOW 
WATER CROSSINGS ALONG THESE CREEKS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY 
BE FLOODED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO 
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3833 9220 3803 9219 3801 9239 3787 9242
      3792 9307 3822 9306 3824 9268 3842 9259

$$

JLT

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 300339
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1039 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

MOC029-131-300348-
CAMDEN MO-MILLER MO-
1039 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR CAMDEN AND MILLER 
COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED AND LOCAL LAW ENFORECEMENT AGENCIES HAD 
RECEIVED NO REPORTS OF ANY FLOODING THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING IS BEING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. IF FLOODING WAS OBSERVED PLEASE 
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE. 

LAT...LON 3833 9220 3803 9219 3801 9239 3787 9242
      3792 9307 3822 9306 3824 9268 3842 9259

$$

IZZI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
159 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...
UPDRAFTS ARE STARTING TO INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND
WOULD SUSPECT THAT OTHER AREAS OF INITIATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  PARTICULARLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
(VERNON...ST. CLAIR...BARTON COUNTIES)...WHERE OUTFLOW FROM THE EAST
KANSAS CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS.  EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS (BOURBON...CRAWFORD...AND
CHEROKEE) COUNTIES MAY BE IN A GOOD AREA FOR INITIATION AS WELL.

AS EXPECTED...THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS
BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE...AND PRIME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE LATEST ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT 100MB
CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO VALUES BETWEEN 1500 - 2500 J/KG.  WEAK WIND
FIELDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN INDICATE THAT SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS REMAINS VERY LIMITED.  HOWEVER...LARGE AMOUNTS OF
CAPE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALIZED MICROBURST WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  LARGE CAPE VALUES WITHIN THE -10 TO -30 LAYER
WOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
HALF DOLLARS.

DUE TO EXISTING WEAK WIND FIELDS...STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW.  SLOW STORM MOTIONS ALONG WITH HIGH VALUES OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.  OUR SERVICE
HYDROLOGIST WILL BE INTERROGATING ANY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES THAT MAY
UNFOLD.

CRAMER

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS KANSAS...AND WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS FEATURE MAY
NOT IMPACT EASTERN KANSAS OR SW MISSOURI UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS IT
SHIFTS THROUGH.  IN THE MEANTIME...A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WHICH MEANS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD DECENT RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY DURING THE FRONTS PASSAGE THROUGH THE OZARKS.  BY
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL ASSUME MORE OF AN EAST TO WEST
ORIENTATION...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TEMPORARILY STALL OUT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT WITHIN THIS AIRMASS...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
COMING IN COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAKES SINCE WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED.  WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED TEMPS IN THAT DIRECTION.

DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60.

LOOKING DEEPER INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS GOING TO TRANSITION
INTO A TYPICAL JUNE AND JULY STRUCTURE.  SUB TROPICAL HIGH REALLY
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHICH INDUCES A RIDGE
OVER THE ENTIRE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHWEST
FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...PUSHING THE FRONT
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.  A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT OVER THE
OZARKS...DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
MIGRATE EAST...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST PRETTY HOT TEMPERATURES BY LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.  BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE 18Z TAFS CENTER AROUND STORM POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPS LEVELING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXPECT CUMULUS BASES TO END
UP AROUND 4000-4500 FEET. MODIFYING OUR LATEST SOUNDING WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS SHOWS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED.
WITH NO STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM OVER THE REGION...DIDNT FEEL
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TEMPO THUNDER AT THIS TIME...BUT DID
MENTION VICINITY THUNDER FROM 19Z TO 01Z.

MAIN FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO JOPLIN VICINITY TUESDAY MORNING. BUT WILL
TAKE A WAIT AND SEE ON THUNDER BEFORE ADDING TO TAF.

TERRY

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1255 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-301430-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1255 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING DAMAGING WIND
 GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND
 LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
 AND THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
 MISSOURI OZARKS.

  DISCUSSION:

 THE LATEST FORECAST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
 ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
 MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WIND SHEAR REMAINS VERY
 WEAK AND SUMMER LIKE...HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL COMPENSATE
 FOR THE LOW SHEAR AND BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
 TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOCALIZED
 MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ALONG
 WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

 ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
 NORTHWEST OF AN ANDERSON...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO VERSAILLES LINE. A FEW
 STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS
 IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

 ALSO...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
 IS CAPABLE OF HOLDING...ALONG WITH THE LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ANY
 HEAVY THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES SLOWLY OVER A LOCALIZED AREA COULD
 PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

 SEVERAL PERIODS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
 THURSDAY AS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A FRONT
 WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.  WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
 IS NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
 SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
 FOR OBSERVATIONS OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
428 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

MOZ057-069-292215-
CAMDEN-MILLER-
428 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CAMDEN AND MILLER COUNTIES UNTIL 515
PM CDT...

AT 427 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF CAMDENTON TO ST. ELIZABETH...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMDENTON TO 18 MILES EAST OF OSAGE BEACH...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

TERRY