Flash Flood Warning 119, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI BEING AIDED BY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AT AROUND THE
305K SURFACE...GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL
JET.

UPPER LOW NOW SITUATED OVER NEW MEXICO IS PROGGED TO LIFT
OUT...WEAKEN...AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY.  AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS OUT TODAY...RAIN SHIELD WILL TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.  LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL
RAINS...WITH SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI GETTING THE BEST SOAKING.  WITH
DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY HIGH FLASH FLOOD
VALUES....DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A FLOOD THREAT OVER THE AREA AT THIS
TIME.

CLOUDS TO HANG IN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE WEST
AND AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
REGIONS. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY AS THE CLOUDS BREAK
AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 70S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AND DID NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN COOL US BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

GAEDE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR 12Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE PREDOMINANT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AVERAGING AROUND LOW END MVFR
AND OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO END
DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON AROUND JOPLIN...AND LAGGING INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE ENDING AT SPRINGFIELD. WILL PROBABLY HOLD ON TO MVFR
OVERCAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LARGE MOISTURE
SHIELD OVER THE REGION. GUSTY SURFACE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS AT TIMES.

MMT

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
536 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
536 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

 WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE ISOLATED FLOODING
 LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

 AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MAINLY SOUTH OF
 INTERSTATE 44.

 DISCUSSION:

 AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
 WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
 MEXICO TO PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW
 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED FLOODING
 OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS MAY DEVELOP WHERE PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL
 OCCURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAEDE