Flash Flood Warning 109, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
640 PM CDT MON SEP 11 2006

.UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST OF THE FRONT. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WAS
SUPPORTED BY A 70 KT 250 MB JET STREAK COMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STORMS WERE MOST CONCENTRATED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE
UPPER DIVERGENCE WAS MOST FAVORABLE. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE
SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL ADJUST RAIN CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN WAS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WESTERN
MISSOURI BEGAN TO DESTABILIZE.  TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID
80S OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT YIELDED CAPES RANGING FROM 1000 - 1500
J/KG.  VISIBLE SAT INDICATED A FIELD OF CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ELEMENT WAS THE INITIAL
CHALLENGE.  THEN FOCUS WILL TRANSITION TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
COVER TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.  AS A MATTER OF
FACT...THE LATEST FEW VOLUME SCANS WERE INDICATING A FEW DEVELOPING
CELLS...SUGGESTING THAT THE CAP IS FINALLY BREAKING IN A FEW SPOTS
ALONG THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT)...
WILL BE WATCHING THE VIS AND RADAR CLOSELY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO WEDGE IN FROM KANSAS.  CROSS
SECTION ANALYSIS SHOWS A DECENT STRUCTURE TO THIS COLD FRONT THAT
WOULD FORCE PARCELS UP.  WILL MAKE SOME FINAL MODIFICATIONS TO POPS
TONIGHT BUT LARGE POPS MAY BE JUSTIFIED FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM ANDERSON TO WARSAW.

THE CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS ALSO SUGGESTED CONSIDERABLE STRATUS TO
SPREAD OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  ANALYZING THE 300K POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE SURFACE FROM THE WRF SOLUTION INDICATES A CONSISTENT
RISE IN LOCAL POTENTIAL TEMP SURFACES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TOMORROW.  THIS SHOULD REINFORCE CLOUD COVER EVEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH IN TURN WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING
OUT OF THE MID 70S.  I MAY LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL POPS IN FOR TUESDAYS
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE
LOW LEVEL POST FRONTAL FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS.  ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND WILL LIKELY
ADVERTISE SOMETHING SIMILAR.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY - SUNDAY)...
A NICE SUNNY WARMUP WILL FOLLOW TUESDAYS DRURY AND COOL DAY.  LOOK
FOR AFTERNOON READINGS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S OUT OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI TO THE LOW 80S NEAR JOPLIN AND PITTSBURG.  THE REGION WILL
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE HEIGHT RISES AT THIS TIME WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE POPS OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION.  MEANWHILE A LARGE SCALE ALASKAN CYCLONE GRADUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WILL SET UP DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND ALLOW A RETURN OF VERY WARM AIR AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE DEEP AS THE GULF
SOURCE REGION BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY MEASURING DEWS IN THE UPPER 70S.
WITH NO DRYING TO OCCUR OVER THIS AREA ANYTIME SOON...THIS GULF
AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE OZARKS AND SET THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER.

AS OF NOW...THERE ARE NO SIGNALS WITH THE GFS DATA THAT WOULD
INDICATE ANY DISTURBANCES TO MIGRATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER CYCLONE THAT WOULD IMPACT THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HINTS AT A PROGRESSIVE WAVE TO PASS OVER THE
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  AT THIS POINT I CAN NOT RULE IT OUT...AND
THIS SHOULD BECOME MORE DISCERNIBLE WITH TIME.  ZERO POPS END FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ILL INSERT A 20 POP FOR PERIODS WITHIN SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.  I ALSO INCREASED TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.  SURFACE TO 850 THICKNESSES SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 90 OUT WEST TOWARD JOPLIN AND PITTSBURG.

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...ANYONE WITH HAZARDOUS WEATHER INTERESTS
SHOULD NOTE THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL EXPERIENCE A MAJOR
CHANGE THIS WEEKEND.  THIS CHANGE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER REGARDING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME DURING THE
SATURDAY - MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SMALLER SCALE FORECAST TRENDS TO PROVIDE BETTER DETAILS THROUGHOUT
THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...THE PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS THE
RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SECONDARY CONCERN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS DECK TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SGF AND JLN
TERMINALS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BY
MID AFTERNOON AND BEGIN A WEST TO EAST TREK ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. DUE TO SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...HAVE OPTED
TO ONLY INCLUDE VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
SHIFT TO THE EAST OF SGF BY THIS EVENING.

THEREAFTER...CONCERNS MOUNT FOR A DEVELOPING STRATUS DECK IN
NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT. MOS AND CLIMATOLOGY SUGGEST A GRADUAL BUILD
DOWN AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS CLOSELY. MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER
03Z IN JLN (06Z IN SGF) WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z.
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
TOWARD SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.  EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW CLOUDS TO
HANG IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE ON TUESDAY.

GAEDE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
745 PM CDT MON SEP 11 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-121800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
745 PM CDT MON SEP 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
  GROUND LIGHTNING...AND 40 MPH WIND GUSTS.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE MISSOURI
  OZARKS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.

  DISCUSSION:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A
  COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION TONIGHT.
  DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
  THE SCATTERED STORMS WILL END FROM THE WEST AS THE FRONT
  PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

 THE LATEST FORECAST ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
 PATTERN WILL EXPERIENCE A MAJOR CHANGE.  DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
 ALOFT WILL ALLOW DEEP MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
 ADVANCE INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR
 ACTIVE WEATHER BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY. LOCAL INTERESTS ACROSS THE
 REGION SHOULD CONTINUE MONITORING LATER DISCUSSIONS REGARDING
 THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER/FOSTER