Flash Flood Warning 107, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
356 AM CDT MON SEP 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POPS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

EARLY THIS MORNING A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST KANSAS.  A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EASTWARD FROM THIS LOW
ACROSS MID-MISSOURI WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  LOOKING AT THE
UPPER LEVELS...RUC ANALYSIS...PROFILERS...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO WESTERN IOWA...WITH A
WEAKER IMPULSE SPINNING OVER COLORADO.  IN ADDITION...A 70 KT 250MB
JET STREAK ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS AIDED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SWATH OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI.  THE PRECIPITATION WAS FOCUSED IN AN
AREA OF GOOD DIVERGENCE IN THE 250-300MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.  MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO FOUND NEAR THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

FOR TODAY...WENT LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF OUR MISSOURI
COUNTIES...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WHILE THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO EXIT OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES...MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON.  AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...THE WRF
PROGS ANOTHER JET STREAK ACROSS OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL PUT MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR DECENT UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE.  DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPS MAY BE
ABLE TO WARM ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE CAPES APPROACHING 1000
J/KG ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL MISSOURI. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND
20-25 KTS SO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT THERE
COULD BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO.  WILL HOLD ON TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS
FAR EASTERN AREAS FOR THE EVENING WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF TO
SLIGHTS ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AS THE SURFACE FRONT AND BEST UPPER
FORCING PUSH TO THE EAST. ON TUESDAY...HELD ON TO SOME SLIGHTS/LOW
CHANCE POPS MAINLY EAST OF A WARSAW...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO BRANSON
LINE AS THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI.  IT
WOULDNT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET A ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO FROM
THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE A CHALLENGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION...AND THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL HAVE A BIG
EFFECT ON WHERE HIGHS END UP TODAY.  BEST GUESS AT THE MOMENT IS THAT
SOUTHCENTRAL MISSOURI WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S BEFORE THE FRONT
AND BULK OF PRECIPITATION REACH THAT AREA.  FURTHER NORTH...COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE UPPER 70S.  ON TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A
PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS WILL BLANKET MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
THE MISSOURI OZARKS.  IN ADDITION...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET
BRING A BLOB OF COOLER 850MB AIR OVER THE AREA RANGING FROM 8 TO 11
DEG C.  WITH THIS IN MIND...MOST OF THE AREA WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAKE
OF THE OZARKS REGION.

MADE SOME DOWNWARD TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND UKMET SHOW ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.  OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDS
LOOK GOOD WITH THE REGION STAYING DRY UNTIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SAW

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

SAW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
430 AM CDT MON SEP 11 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-111800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
430 AM CDT MON SEP 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
  CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE
  SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM WEST
  TO EAST TONIGHT.  THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A FORT
  LEONARD WOOD TO GAINESVILLE LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

  DISCUSSION:

  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY.  THIS FRONT
  WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
  SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  IF
  SUFFICIENT HEATING DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL MISSOURI
  IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
  PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 60
  MPH. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE
  MARGINAL WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  THE LATEST FORECAST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT A PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
  THAT IS CONDUCIVE TO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT
  WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. LOCAL INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK
  FUTURE FORECASTS LATER THIS WEEK REGARDING ACTIVE WEATHER
  POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO THE
  ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER/SAW/CRAMER